CORN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Sellers stepped back into the corn market on Thursday as prices suffered moderate losses. Technical selling pressured the market with month-end positioning as March corn failed to push the $5 level.
- Going into the Thursday session, the corn market was in an overbought condition as hedge funds were holding a near record long position. With selling pressure in the soybean market, corn futures were pressured lower.
- USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 23, new corn sales totaled 1.359 MMT (53.5 mb). This total was toward the upper end of expectations but down 18% from last week. Total corn commitments remain strong, still trending 28% ahead of last year’s pace.
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 78% of the crop as good/normal, down 2% from last week, while poor ratings rose to 22% despite recent moisture improvements.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Soybeans ended the day significantly lower meeting resistance at $10.60 in March yesterday and were unable to break that level again today. Export sales were disappointing today, which pressured prices, and lower soybean meal added to that pressure losing $5.10 in March. Soybean oil was relatively unchanged to slightly higher.
- The USDA announced weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 23, new soybean sales totaled 438,000 MT (16.1 mb). This was below market expectations and down 71% from last week’s totals.
- Despite seeing scattered rainfall last week, Argentina crop ratings did not improve. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the Argentina soybean crop was 72% good/normal and 28% poor. The poor category was unchanged from last week.
- With U.S. tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada set to take effect this weekend, concerns over potential trade retaliations threaten future soybean exports.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Wheat closed with modest gains, as there is continued concern about winterkill in both the U.S. and Russia. Also offering support today was a higher close for Matif wheat futures, a slight drop in the U.S. dollar, and reports that there were new Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian grain storage facilities.
- Weekly wheat export sales totaled 16.8 mb for 24/25 and 0.9 mb for 25/26, while shipments of 21.6 mb exceeded the 19.5 mb/week pace needed to reach USDA’s 850 mb target. Total commitments for 24/25 are now at 667 mb, up 8% from last year.
- SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat export forecast from 43.7 mmt to 42.8 mmt, citing upcoming export quotas starting February 15. Meanwhile, Russia’s ag ministry reports 82% of the winter wheat crop is in good to satisfactory condition, though weather remains a risk.
- February temperatures in India are expected to be above average, potentially reducing wheat yields. If production drops significantly, India — normally a self-sufficient wheat consumer — could become a net importer, a bullish factor for global wheat markets.
DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:
- Class III milk futures had a choppy session on Thursday with nearby contracts up as many as 8c and down as much as 1c. Second month February gained 8c to $20.42.
- The spot whey market struggled once again, dropping 3c to $0.66/lb. There may be a possible top in the market in the short term after having hit multi-year highs in December.
- Spot butter lost another penny and closed at $2.45/lb. This is its lowest close since July of 2023.
- For now, tariffs appear to be set to be added onto imports of China, Mexico, and Canada products on Saturday, February 1st. The market is hoping to gain more clarity on this in the coming days.
- Spot cheese had an interesting session. Barrels traded up 1.50c intraday before closing unchanged while blocks traded a penny higher before closing just 0.50c higher. Sellers were active.
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