CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures slid lower into the weekend. March corn closed 2-1/2 cents lower to 428-1/4 while July corn shed 3-3/4 cents to close at 442. For the week, March corn lost 2-1/4 cents while December futures added ¾ of a cent to close at 456.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange further lowered Argentina’s corn crop condition ratings, with good-to-excellent now at 46%, down sharply from 82% in mid-December, highlighting the impact of ongoing weather stress.
• South American forecasts call for limited rainfall across Argentina this weekend, before drier-than-normal conditions likely return next week. In Brazil, continued moisture is expected across central regions; while this may slow soybean harvest progress, it will benefit soil moisture ahead of safrinha corn planting.
• After strong upside momentum earlier in the week, gold and silver futures saw sharp corrections on Friday. As of this writing, silver futures are down more than 25% on the day, while gold futures are off over 8%, with prices falling back below $5,000/oz.
• Corn export demand remains a key support, with total commitments at 2.271 billion bushels, running 33% ahead of last year. U.S. corn exports in November totaled 287 mb, up 101 mb year over year, underscoring strong global demand.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower with primary pressure coming from a spike up in the US Dollar Index which pressured nearly all commodities. March soybeans were down 8 cents to $10.64-1/4 while November was down 10 cents to $10.79-3/4. March soybean meal was down $2.50 to $293.85 and March soybean oil lost 0.52 cents to 53.51 cents.
• President Trump announced his pick for Federal Reserve Chair once Jerome Powell’s term ends. Market participants expect the nominee, Kevin Warsh, to favor easier monetary policy, a shift that could influence currency markets and potentially increase pressure on U.S. grain exports if the dollar strengthens.
• December soybean crush is estimated at 230.4 mb, according to Reuters. If realized, this would be up 4.5% from November’s 220.5 mb and 5.9% above December 2024’s 217.7 mb. Analyst estimates range from 227 to 234.5 mb.
• For the week, March soybeans lost 2-1/4 cents and for the month they lost 12 cents. November soybeans lost 2-1/4 cents for the week and gained 15-1/4 for the month. March soybean meal lost $6.30 for the week and lost $5.8o for the month. March soybean oil lost 0.48 cents for the week and gained 4.95 cents on the month.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower alongside corn and soybeans, pressured by a continued rebound in the U.S. dollar and weakness across outside markets. Although prices recovered from intraday lows, gold remained down more than $400/oz and silver off over $30/oz at the time of writing. The sharp selloff in metals likely spilled over into broader commodity pressure. March Chicago wheat 538 down 3-1/2 cents, March Kansas City 544-3/4 down 2-1/4 cents, and March MIAX 578-1/4 down 3-1/4 cents.
• According to the USDA, as of January 27, an estimated 41% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is a decline of 1% compared to the week prior. During the same time period, winter wheat area in drought held steady at 10%.
• EU soft wheat exports for the 25/26 season are estimated at 29.5 mmt, according to the European Commission. This is a drop from their December estimate of 31.0 mmt. Due to the lower export projection, EU ending stocks are anticipated to increase from 11.7 mmt to 13.0 mmt. The European Commission also slightly lowered their estimate of EU 25/26 wheat production from 134.4 to 134.2 mmt.
• The USDA will release select state crop condition updates beginning February 4. When released, this may indicate just how much, if any damage was sustained to the winter wheat crop during the recent frigid temperatures.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were able to rally to end the week on support from the Class IV market. March futures gained 63 cents to $16.53.
• Spot cheese fell 1.625 cents to finish at $1.37625/lb while whey improved half a penny to $0.75/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were supported by a great spot trade for butter and powder. April futures traded limit up to $17.35.
• Spot butter jumped 9.50 cents on the day due to strong bidding to close $1.58/lb. Powder gained 4.25 cents to $1.46/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty