The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn had a quiet, mixed close, with the front months gaining a few cents while December was down by less than a penny. Following Tuesday’s neutral USDA report, traders may be awaiting fresh news, with attention shifting back to South American weather and tariff talks.
• Weekly corn exports came in at 79 mb, with 65 mb in old crop sales, and 14 mb in 25/26 sales. This was above expectations and YTD commitments are at 1.827 billion, up 28% from YA vs the USDA forecast of up 7%. The big buyers were Japan at 18 million, Korea at 13, and Mexico and Colombia each bought 10 million.
• This morning CONAB released updated production estimates for Brazilian crops, raising the corn forecast by 2.5 mmt to 122 mmt and edging closer to the USDA projection of 126 mmt. However, the Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their corn production figure by 2 mmt to 46 mmt; the USDA stands at 50 mmt. These adjustments essentially offset each other, which may have contributed to today’s generally neutral trade.
• The second half of February is expected to bring better rain chances to much of Argentina, offering relief from heat and dryness and helping to stabilize crops. However, it may be too late to undo any damage sustained up to this point. Meanwhile, Brazil’s forecast looks to improve over the next week, which should support a quicker pace for safrinha planting.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans finished the day slightly higher after recovering from a lower overnight trade. Despite weak export sales, new CONAB estimates were released, showing a more favorable outlook compared to the USDA. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil ended higher, even with a dip in crude oil prices.
• Today’s export sales report was disappointing for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 6.8 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 25/26. This was well below the lowest analyst estimate, and primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 40.5 mb were above the 18.6 mb needed each month to meet the USDA’s expectations.
• CONAB released its new estimates for 24/25 grain production this morning and lowered them from the previous month. The new estimates for soybeans are 166.014 mmt which compared to 166.328 mmt in January. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt.
• South American weather has improved and prices in Brazil have become much more competitive with the US. The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 169 mmt while other firms are closer to 172 mmt, a huge crop either way.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted modest gains across all three classes, with Kansas City futures leading the way. In fact, wheat was the top performer in the grain complex today, benefiting from a break in the US Dollar Index and a decent export sales report. In other news, wire services reported this afternoon that the Senate has confirmed Brooke Rollins as the new head of the USDA.
• The USDA reported an increase of 20.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and an increase of 1.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 21.2 mb, which is above the 19.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal at 850 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 704 mb for 24/25, which is up 9% from last year, whereas the USDA is looking for a 20% increase.
• According to the USDA, as of February 11, an estimated 23% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions; this is unchanged from the week prior. Meanwhile, spring wheat areas in drought decreased from 45% to 40% for that same time period. Given the large snowstorm that just moved through the central US, conditions may show further improvement next week.
• In an update from FranceAgriMer, French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season are anticipated to reach 9.74 mmt. This is up just slightly from their January estimate at 9.735 mmt. Furthermore, the stockpiles estimate was reduced from 2.89 mmt to 2.81 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III contracts were two-sided today with mostly minor moves. March futures finished at $19.79.
• The block/barrel average was up slightly from Wednesday to $1.8750/lb. Spot whey dropped 0.75 cents to $0.56/lb.
• Sellers continued to push Class IV with only the front month finishing green today. March futures are down to $19.42.
• Spot powder was unchanged today, entering Friday down 3.00 cents, while powder gave back a half-cent today, up 2 for the week.

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Author

Amanda Brill