The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 16, in observance of Presidents Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market attracted late-session buying and closed modestly higher. Gains were restrained by broader weakness across the grain complex, particularly in wheat. March corn rose ½ cent to 4.31¾, while May added ½ cent to 4.42.
• The strong demand tone maintains support under the corn market as weekly export sales on Thursday were 81 mb, above market expectations. Despite increased export competition from Argentina, the U.S. remains competitively priced in the global market.
• On Friday next week, March options expire, which could bring volatility into the corn market during the week.  The largest areas of open interest for March options are the 430-strike, followed by the 420-strike levels.
• February is used to establish the crop insurance base price, calculated from the December futures average. Approaching mid-month, the projected insurance price is slightly above $4.58.
• On February 10, the USDA will release its baseline projections for the 2026/27 marketing year. In its preliminary November outlook, the agency projected corn acreage at 95 million acres, a trend yield of 182 bushels per acre, and ending stocks of 2.102 billion bushels.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures pulled back Friday following a strong weekly advance, as likely profit-taking ahead of the three-day weekend pressured prices. March futures fell 4¼ cents to settle at 11.33. March soybean oil declined 0.46 cents to close at 57.08, while March soybean meal gained $1.30 to finish at $309.20 per ton.
• Export demand from China is likely to slow in the coming week as the country observes the Chinese New Year, which begins Tuesday, the 17th, typically resulting in reduced commercial activity and limited new purchasing. In addition, U.S. markets will be closed Monday, the 16th, in observance of Presidents Day, further compressing the trading window and likely muting short-term export headlines.
• Meanwhile, Brazil is harvesting what is expected to be a record soybean crop; however, crop conditions in southern and central growing regions deteriorated last week, with ratings falling 8 percentage points to just 32% good-to-excellent. While production prospects remain historically large, the decline in ratings introduces a marginal weather-risk premium that the market may monitor closely during peak harvest pressure.
• Brazil’s IMEA reports that 51% of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop has been harvested as of this week. That is slightly ahead of last year at this time and nine percentage points ahead of the five-year average for mid-February. After an unusually rapid start, recent rainfall has slowed fieldwork, bringing weekly harvest progress back toward a more seasonally typical rate for February.
• For the week March soybean added 17-3/4 cents, while new crop November added 19-1/2. March soybean oil futures added 1.75 cents, closing at their highest level for the life of the contract. March soybean meal added $5.60 per ton on the week.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures ended the day lower across all three classes, pressured by several bearish global headlines that limited gains. Chicago March wheat fell 3½ cents to 5.48¾, while Kansas City March wheat dropped 11¼ cents to settle at 5.42¾.
• IKAR raised its 2026/27 Russian wheat production forecast by 3 mmt to 91 mmt, surpassing the USDA estimate of 89.5 mmt. The larger crop outlook likely helped cool the recent price rally that followed reports of winterkill from extreme cold.
• India announced it will allow 2.5 million metric tons of wheat exports — the first such authorization in four years — in addition to 500,000 tons of wheat products. The move signals a measured easing of export restrictions and introduces additional supply to the global market, particularly notable given India’s position as one of the world’s largest wheat producers.
• Global production continues to expand, highlighted by Western Australia producing a record 27.35 million tons of grain in the 2025 growing season, driven in part by an increase in total cropped area.
• FranceAgriMer reports French SRW conditions at 91% good to excellent, marking a three-year high for this time of year and up from 73% a year ago.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III gave back yesterday’s gains and then some, heading into the weekend. March futures saw the largest loss of 57 cents to close at $15.88.
• Both spot cheese and whey held steady today at $1.41375/lb and $0.72/lb. No loads traded for either product leaving prices unchanged.
• Class IV milk saw some early gains but backed off to a more neutral setting towards the close. May futures lost 12 cents to $17.68.
• Spot butter fell 3 cents on the day to $1.7050/lb. Powder went home at $1.60/lb, up 0.25 cents on the day.

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Author

John Heinberg