The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A strong rally in the wheat market provided support to corn futures, but selling resistance at the $5.00 level on the March contract capped gains, leading to a weaker close in the afternoon. Despite this, March corn futures ended the week 8 ¾ cents higher, marking a positive weekly performance.
• Demand stayed supportive in the corn market as the USDA announced another flash export sale on Friday morning. Colombia purchased 100,000 mt (3.9 mb) for corn for the current marketing year.
• Despite recent rainfall, crop condition for Argentina corn continued to slide last week. Only 16% of the crop is in good condition, down from 25% last week. Approximately 1/3 of the Argentina corn crop is struggling from recent hot and dry weather.
• The corn market still has a supportive tone given the global stocks-to-use ratios. Excluding China, global stocks-to-use is at a 29-year low at 7.9%, and with China large supply calculated in, stocks-to-use is at an 11-year low.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were higher to end the day ahead of the long Presidents Day weekend. The grain complex was primarily led higher by large gains in wheat after a Russian drone strike escalated tensions in Ukraine. Soybean meal was higher, while soybean oil followed crude oil lower.
• Yesterday’s export sales report was poor for soybeans coming in below the range of analyst estimates at 7.7 million bushels. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Brazilian soybeans remain competitive with the US which is limiting export demand.
• For the week, March soybeans lost 13-1/2 cents while November soybeans lost 5-1/2 cents. March soybean meal lost $5.50 to $295.90, and March soybean oil gained 0.09 cents to 46.07 cents. Pressure this week came from ongoing harvest in Brazil.
• Yesterday, CONAB released its new estimates for 24/25 grain production this morning and lowered them from the previous month. The new estimates for soybeans are 166.014 mmt which compared to 166.328 mmt in January. This is below the USDA’s last estimate of 169 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three U.S. wheat classes closed sharply higher on Friday, fueled by reports of a Russian drone strike on the Chernobyl reactor shield. Although reports indicate the damage was not severe and no radiation leakage occurred, the market reacted to the news, likely driven by perception and fund short covering. Continued concerns about potential winterkill, a higher close for Matif wheat, and a weaker U.S. dollar also supported the rally.
• ABARE is not expected to update their total Australian wheat production estimate until March. However, the Western Australian Grain Industry Association has said that their state’s wheat harvest totaled 12.45 mmt, exceeding the December estimate of only 10.8 mmt. Furthermore, their total 2024 grain production at 22.4 mmt is said to be the third largest on record.
• FranceAgriMer rated 73% of the French soft wheat crop as good to very good, up from 68% a year ago, indicating a strong crop condition.
• The 2025 Russian grain harvest could reach between 140-145 mmt, according to OZK Group. For reference, the 2024 crop totaled 128 mmt. This estimate is said to be on the optimistic side, but even conservative estimates project a bigger harvest than last year. On a related note, Russia is expected to export 55 mmt of grain during the 24/25 season, which includes 44 mmt of wheat.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures prices were mixed for a second straight day. April futures saw the largest loss at 14 cents while the October contract saw the largest gain of just 7 cents.
• Spot cheese dropped 0.625 cents on the day to go home at $1.86875/lb. The whey market continued its descent lower, losing half a penny to close at $0.5550/lb.
• Class IV futures were mostly lower on poor spot trading. Losses on the Class IV side ranged from 5 cents to 35 cents led by the September contract.
• Spot butter closed 2.25 cents lower at $2.3775/lb while powder lost 2 cents to close out the week at $1.28/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty