TFM Daily Market Summary 02-15-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day


  • Difficult day in grain markets, and that pressured corn futures to new lows. The USDA Outlook Forum projections detailed the possibility of growing corn supplies into the next marketing year. March corn lost 6 ½ cents on the session.
  • The technical picture and price action in corn remains weak and the March contract closed under 420, leaving the market more susceptible to downside pressure.
  • The USDA Outlook projections estimated corn acreage for the 24/25 crop at 91 million acres and trend line yield at 181 bpa. This combination puts estimated production at 15.040 billion bushels and forecasts new crop carryout to 2.532 billion bushels.
  • Corn export sales stay active. Weekly export sales were near the top end of expectations at 51.5 mb (1.307 mmt), and export pace needs to stay strong in this window to meet the USDA’s goal. Total corn sales are now at 1.426 billion bushels, up 30% from last year.
  • The March futures contract is closing in on first notice day, February 29. In this window, producers with basis contracts and commercials with a large net long position in the corn market will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis. This can add additional selling pressure to the already weak corn market.


  • Soybeans closed significantly lower again today after yesterday’s close that saw March soybeans losing nearly 16 cents. Neither the USDA’s Outlook Forum numbers nor today’s export sales report were friendly. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower.
  • This morning’s Outlook Forum numbers showed expected planted soybean acres for 24/25 increased as expected from 83.6 ma to 87.5 ma. With this increase in expected planted acres and using the higher trendline yield of 52.0 bpa, ending soybean stocks are estimated higher at 435 mb.
  • For the week ending February 8, the USDA reported an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25. Export sales were on the lower end of expectations and sales are now 19% behind a year ago. Last week’s export shipments of 53.4 mb were well above the 20.3 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Spain.
  • The NOPA crush report for January showed 185.8 mb of soybeans crushed, which was below the average trade guess of 189.9 mb but was still a record large number for January. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.507 billion pounds compared to estimates of 1.409 billion.
  • Argentinian weather is expected to improve further over the next week, and Brazil is forecast to continue receiving scattered showers as well. Argentinian soy production has been estimated slightly higher by Refinitiv Commodities Research to 51.9 mmt which is up 1% from a previous update.


  • Along with corn and soybeans, the wheat complex closed in the red with the USDA Ag Outlook Forum numbers, and an upward revision to the Russian wheat crop by SovEcon adding to the negativity.
  • This morning’s USDA’s Ag Outlook numbers for wheat showed estimates of planted wheat acres falling to 47.0 million acres in 24/25 from 49.6 ma last year, and using a trendline yield of 49.2 bpa, estimated wheat ending stocks for 24/25 came out to 769 mb. This compares to the average trade guess of 717 mb and 23/24 ending stocks of 658 mb.
  • In addition to the USDA Ag Outlook Forum numbers, the USDA released weekly export sales as of February 8. For the 23/24 marketing year, the USDA reported new sales totaling 12.8 mb (349k mt) which brings total commitments for the 23/24 marketing year to 646.8 mb, a 7% increase over last year. The USDA also reported 1.8 mb in new sales for 24/25.
  • Consulting firm SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s 2024 wheat crop by 1.4 mmt to 93.6 mmt due to good growing weather in most of the regions. This represents a 400,000 mt increase from last year. This news added yet another layer of bearishness to the already weak wheat markets since weak Russian prices have been a major hurdle for US prices and exports for some time.
  • France’s 23/24 soft wheat stocks were seen 37% higher than the previous year at 3.5m tons which was up from a previous estimate of 3.44 and represents the highest total since the 2018/19 season. The country’s soft wheat exports are currently estimated at 16.7 mmt, near unchanged from last month.
  • Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought just over 115k mt of food-grade milling wheat in a tender from the US, Canada, and Australia that closed on Thursday. Bangladesh also issued an international tender to purchase 50k mt of milling wheat.


  • Second quarter Class III milk futures took another hit today led by the April contract, which saw a drop of 17 cents. The second quarter Class III average has now lost 29 cents from this same day last week and currently sits at $17.57/cwt.
  • Spot cheese saw another day of losses losing over 2 cents to settle at $1.52375/lb. This makes for a weekly loss of 5 cents. They whey market continues to creep higher gaining a penny to close at $0.53/lb.
  • Class IV milk futures were steady on the day with lower volume trading again. The 2024 Class IV average currently sits a penny higher at $20.60/cwt thanks to better demand in Class IV products.
  • Spot butter gained a couple of cents, gaining back some losses from late last week. Spot butter is currently trading at $2.7275/lb. Powder was lackluster, dropping half a cent to settle at $1.1750/lb.

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Amanda Brill

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