CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures closed higher Friday, drawing support from strength in the wheat complex as markets navigated heightened policy uncertainty. March corn was 1 ¾ cents higher to 427 ½, and May added 3 ½ cents to 439 ¾. For the week, March futures lost 4 ¼ cents and the May contract was down 2 ½ cents on the week.
• The Supreme Court of the United States ruled that tariffs implemented by the Trump administration were unlawful, injecting fresh uncertainty into trade policy. Market participants are now assessing the potential path forward and implications for existing trade relationships. Later in the day, Donald Trump indicated he would sign an order under the National Security Act to impose a new global 10% tariff on foreign trade partners, adding another layer of policy risk.
• The corn market has moved past options expiration but now focused on first notice day of the March futures. First notice day for March futures falls on February 27. Producers holding basis or “price-later” contracts may need to fix futures ahead of that date, a dynamic that can increase hedge-related selling as cash bushels are priced or delivered. March/May corn spread moved to a new contract low on Friday’s trade at -12 cents.
• USDA released the weekly export sales report on Friday morning. For the week ending February 12, the USDA reported new sales of 1.470 MMT (57.9 mb) for the current marketing year. This was within market expectations. Japan and Mexico were top buyers of US corn last week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower, coming well off highs earlier in the day and trading in a wide range following the news of the Supreme Court ruling. March soybeans lost 3-1/2 cents to $11.37-1/2 while November lost 3-1/4 cents to $11.15. March soybean meal gained $5.00 to $309.80 and March soybean oil lost 0.76 cents to 58.92 cents. Today was expiration for March options.
• The Supreme Court ruled that tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump were unlawful and could not remain in place. The decision was viewed as bearish for soybeans, as it raises questions about the durability of recent Chinese buying without the backdrop of tariff threats. President Trump later indicated he would pursue alternative mechanisms to impose trade levies, including a proposed 10% global tariff, adding further uncertainty to the trade outlook.
• Today’s export sales report saw an increase of soybean sales of 29.3 mb for 25/26 and an increase of 2.4 mb for 26/27. This was up from the previous week but was down 20% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Japan. Export shipments of 47.4 mb were above the 24.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• For the week, March soybeans gained 4-1/2 cents while November gained 1-1/2 cents. Front months have been more supported by optimism over old crop sales. March soybean meal gained $0.60 and March soybean oil gained 1.84 cents, scoring new contract highs this week.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat led the grain complex higher this session. While headlines noted that the Supreme Court of the United States ruled against President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the decision appeared to have minimal direct impact on wheat trade. Instead, short covering by managed funds was the more likely driver, supported by ongoing dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains and the lack of progress in Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations. Furthermore, another stride higher for Paris milling wheat futures was supportive to the U.S. Market. March Chicago gained 14 cents to 573-1/2, Kansas City was up 6-3/4 cents to 572-1/4, and MIAX climbed 4-1/2 cents to 587.
• The USDA reported an increase of 10.6 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and 0.7 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 11.9 mb, which is below the 17.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s 900 mb export goal. Total commitments for 25/26 stand at 830 mb, up 15% from last year.
• The Russian agriculture ministry has left their wheat export tax unchanged at 0% though March 3. This is likely in an effort to stimulate additional exports. While Russian wheat is cheaper than that of the U.S., Argentine wheat is still cheaper than that from Russia.
• The International Grains Council has reduced their estimate of global grain stockpiles by 3 mmt to 631 mmt. Wheat stocks specifically declined by 1 mmt to 282 mmt. Furthermore, they are projecting a smaller wheat crop for the 26/27 season, citing expectations for a reduced harvest and tighter supply with increases in consumption.
• According to FranceAgriMer, an estimated 88% of the French soft wheat crop is rated as good to very good as of February 16. However, this is a 3% decline from the week before; several French wheat growing regions have been experiencing flooding, which has impacted the crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot butter moved to another high for the move at $1.87/lb, which is its highest level since mid-September. Powder improved 6.25 cents to $1.6850/lb.
• Class IV prices were sharply higher thanks to a higher move in butter and powder. April futures increased 69 cents to $19.50.
• Class III futures were weaker on the day as a result of a lackluster spot trade for its products. The March contract fell 43 cents to $16.51.
• Spot cheese was slightly higher to $1.49375/lb while whey dropped 6 cents to its lowest level since October at $0.68/lb.
• Today’s Milk Production report showed production during January increasing 3.2% YoY to 19.810 billion pounds. Milk cows were up 189,000 head from last year to 9.580 million head.

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Author

Amanda Brill