CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Late buying strength in the corn market on Thursday helped lift corn prices of session lows to finish with moderate gains. May futures gained 1 ½ cents to 443 ½ and July Futures added 1 cent to 451 ¼.
• March futures hit first notice day tomorrow, and that has added volatility to the front end of the corn market. Basis contracts have likely been priced out or rolled today. The market will be watching the deliveries against the March futures.
• The weekly export sales report for corn was disappointing on Thursday morning. For the week ending February 19, U.S. exporters reported new sales of 685,800 MT (27.0 mb) for 2025/2026. This total was below the low end of expectations and was down 53% from the previous week and 56% from the prior 4-week average. Mexico and Japan remain the largest buyers of U.S. corn on the week.
• USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Thursday morning. Japan purchased 178,000 MT of corn. Sales were split with 154,000MT for the 2026-27 marketing year and 24,000 MT for the 2027-28 marketing year.
• President Trump and the EPA are looking to shift at least half (50%) of waived biofuel obligations to big refiners. This would increase the responsibility of large oil companies to cover those obligations, and the decision was deemed supportive of biofuels.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly lower after another volatile trading session that saw prices move higher overnight before turning sharply lower near midday. Likely end-of-month profit-taking by funds, combined with overbought technical conditions, contributed to the weakness. Soybean oil made new contract highs again despite the losses in soybeans and bean meal.
• March soybeans lost 1/2 cent to $11.47-3/4 with prices reaching as high as $11.56 and as low as $11.29-1/4. Tomorrow is first notice day for March grain futures and may have impacted trade today as longs exited. November soybeans lost 1/4 cent to $11.27-1/2, March soybean meal lost $0.70 to $317.60, and March soybean oil gained 1.03 cents to 61.29 cents.
• Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans with sales for the week ending February 19 totaling 15.0 million bushels which was below expectations and below last week’s sales by 49%. Top buyers were Egypt, Germany, and China. Last week’s shipments of 29.8 mb were above the 22.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export expectations.
• The EPA will send its proposal for the new biofuel blending mandates to the White House today and is expected to be finalized by the end of March. This could drive more demand towards soybean oil which would increase crush numbers. An increase in domestic demand may slightly offset the recent drop in exports.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had a mixed close today. In the March contract, Chicago gained 6 cents to 571-3/4, Kansas City was down 1 at 551-1/2, and MIAX was unchanged at 583-1/2. With first notice date tomorrow for March grains, as well as it being the last trading day of the month, it is likely that traders’ squaring up of positions played a role in today’s two-sided trade.
• The USDA reported an increase of 8.9 mb in wheat export sales for 25/26, and an increase of 3.9 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 19.8 mb, which exceeded the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 900 mb. Total wheat export commitments stand at 839 mb, up 15% from last year.
• Expectations for beneficial rains next week across the U.S. Southern Plains — particularly eastern Kansas and Oklahoma — likely pressured HRW wheat today. Additional weight came from rumors of potential imports of lower-priced Argentine or EU wheat into the U.S., as domestic export prices remain uncompetitive.
• According to Indian meteorologists, the country could experience abnormally hot temperatures during March, potentially stressing the wheat crop. Although India is the world’s second-largest wheat producer, it typically consumes nearly all of its production and is generally neither a significant importer nor exporter. A smaller crop, however, could shift that balance and lead to import demand later in the marketing year.
• SovEcon has reduced their estimate of Russian 25/26 wheat exports by 0.3 mmt to 45.4 mmt. Reportedly, cheaper EU supplies are to blame, as they have made Russia less competitive on the global marketplace. Nevertheless, SovEcon increased their Russian wheat export estimate for the 26/27 season by 2.1 mmt to 41.7 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures fell sharply on the day after yesterday’s run up. April futures lost 64 cents to $17.21 while May futures fell 60 cents to $17.52.
• Spot cheese pulled back after a 7-day run up, moving 3.625 cents lower to $1.5450/lb. Whey was unchanged at $0.6375/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were mixed through remaining 2026 contracts. March futures were down 8 cents to $19.67.
• Spot butter tacked on 2.50 cents to $1.86/lb while powder prices improved 3.75 cents to $1.71/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty