CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A reversal in crude oil and wheat prices triggered long liquidation in the corn market as prices closed lower on Monday afternoon. May corn lost 6 ¾ cents to 453 ¾, while July corn fell 5 ½ cents to 465 ¾.
• The May contract closed 12 ¼ cents of the session high, and turned charts negative technically. The market will be looking for additional selling pressure to confirm the move on Tuesday.
• USDA will release the March WASDE report on Tuesday morning. The expectation is for the USDA to make light demand adjustments and increase carryout slightly. Analysts feel that the adjustment could come from a slight reduction in ethanol demand.
• USDA release weekly export inspection on Monday morning. For the week ending March 5, Export inspections reached 1.518 MMT (59.7 mb).  This number was within expectations, but off from last week’s total. Current corn inspections are still trending 42% over last year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day but traded violently with gains of as much as 33 cents overnight in the May contract before giving them up at the end of the day, but deferred contracts closed slightly higher. The war in Iran drove crude oil prices to $113 a barrel overnight which supported soybean oil and therefore soybeans. The upcoming moves in the soy complex will likely be very closely tied to moves in crude oil and developments in the war.
• March soybeans lost 4-1/2 cents today ending at $11.80-1/2 while May lost 4-1/2 cents to $11.96-1/4 coming off their overnight high of $12.33-3/4. November soybeans gained 1-1/2 cents to $11.48-1/4, May soybean meal lost $3.70 to $313.50, and May bean oil lost 0.48 cents to 65.10 cents coming off the overnight high of 69.91 cents.
• Today’s export inspections report was soft for soybeans totaling 32.3 million bushels for the week ending March 5. This was on the lower end of expectations. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 995 mb, which is down 30% from last year, and the USDA is expecting 25/26 exports to be down 16% from the previous year.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 3. They bought 14,700 contracts increasing their net long position to 198,902 contracts. They bought 30,392 contracts of soybean meal which increased their long position to 62,087 contracts and bought 12,197 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 75,509 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a sharply higher overnight trade, wheat posted double digit losses in the SRW class. HRW wheat fared better, making only small losses, and HRS Managed minor gains. The wheat complex (and grain market in general) has been following energy prices. Spot crude oil peaked nearly $30/barrel higher overnight but fell back today with talk that G7 nations will tap into strategic reserves – this led to a reversal in grain prices. In the May contract, Chicago lost 13-1/2 cents to 603-1/4, Kansas City fell 3-3/4 cents to 619-3/4, and MIAX gained 3 cents to 646.
• Weekly wheat inspections reached 18.2 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 703 mb, up 20% from last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are forecast at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• Tomorrow morning will feature the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Pre-report estimates appear rather neutral to slightly supportive for wheat. US ending stocks are expected to come in at 923 mb, down from 931 mb in February. Global carryout may also see a small drop from 277.5 mmt to 277.3 mmt. If the report results are generally neutral, they are likely to be overshadowed by the conflict in the Middle East.
• According to APK Inform, Ukrainian 2026 wheat production may reach only 20 mmt. This would be a 3.2 mmt decline from last year. Additionally, 26/27 wheat exports may fall 0.5 mmt from the 25/26 season to 14 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite high volatility across the markets, the dairy trade was relatively quiet Monday. Class III up double digits, while IV was mostly mixed.
• The cheese market continues to inch higher, day after day. Monday saw blocks bid up 1.25c while barrels were flat.
• The butter market caught a 0.75c higher bid to $2.0175/lb while 15 loads traded. Butter is trying to hold over the $2.00 level.
• The feed market jumped higher initially today, helping support dairy. Feed faded throughout the rest of the session, though.
• Both spot powder and whey held steady on no loads traded.
• Dairy export data for January is due out on Thursday of this week.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg