CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw strong buying interest on Tuesday, as rumors regarding biofuel requirements and solid ethanol production helped push futures higher. May corn finished 8 cents higher to 460 ¼, and July corn added 8 ¾ cents higher to 472.
• A rumor leaked regarding Biofuels and the requirements for 2026. The talk was that the biodiesel requirement could be near 5.61 billion gallons. This pushed soybean oil and soybeans higher on the session, and the corn market followed in sympathy.
• Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 331 million gallons for the week ending March 6. This was up from 322 million gallons last week and 6% over last year. A total of 111 mb bushels of corn were used last week to make ethanol. This number is slightly ahead of the pace to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.
• Concerns regarding high fertilizer cost or lack of availability due to high energy prices or logistics could impact some areas. This restriction could limit or cause the loss of some possible acres for the 2026-27 crop.
• The concern with the most recent price rally has been potential impact of demand for U.S. corn. In combination with current higher trend in the U.S. dollar, corn export sales may take a pause.  The USDA hasn’t announced a corn export sale since March 4.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive session, supported by sharply higher soybean oil and stronger crude oil prices. May futures have not yet taken out Monday’s high. May soybeans gained 12-1/4 cents to $12.14 while November gained 9-3/4 cents to $11.63-1/4. May soybean meal was up $0.90 to $315.40 and May soybean oil gained 1.54 cents to 67.16 cents.
• Soybean oil led the rally in soybeans today and while some of that was likely due to the gains in crude oil which was up $4.14 a barrel, rumors of the biodiesel blending mandates may have been supportive as well. According to Middlestat, rumors of the EPA 2026 biomass diesel RVO were leaked at 5.4 billion gallons with potentially 70% of previously granted small refinery exemptions will be reallocated to remaining refiners to result in an effective 2026 RVO near 5.61 billion gallons.
• U.S. and China trade representatives are scheduled to meet this coming weekend in Paris ahead of President Trump’s planned visit later this month. Traders are hopeful that soybean purchases will be among the key topics discussed during the meetings.
• Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 16.47 mmt in March which would compare to 16.09 mmt estimated the previous week, and soybean meal exports are expected to reach 2.82 mmt from the earlier estimate of 2.49 mmt. Brazilian offers are more than a dollar cheaper than the U.S.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat market closed modestly higher across the board but lagged behind both corn and soybeans despite higher crude oil prices. The sharply higher U.S. Dollar Index likely limited the rally, as did MATIF wheat, which finished the session positive but well below its daily high. In the May contract, Chicago gained 3-3/4 cents to 594-3/4, Kansas City climbed 4-3/4 cents to 613-1/2, and MIAX was up 3 cents at 638.
• Russian FOB wheat export values are said to have hit a seven-month high at $237/mt. Meanwhile, French wheat export valuations sit around $245/mt. This may be in part due to rising freight costs, driven by the surge in crude oil and energy prices.
• According to an estimate from Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2026 wheat planted area will fall 15.5% from last year to 1.985 million hectares. They also project production will decline by 14.5% to 6.85 mmt. For reference the USDA is estimating the crop at 8 mmt.
• As reported by Reuters, Russia has restarted grain exports to Iran through the Caspian Sea. It is believed that shipping through this route was on hold for about two days after being halted last week (due to the conflict in Iran). It is also being said that exports from Black Sea terminals remain at a pause for now.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures moved lower again today, with the second-month contract falling 14 cents to settle at $16.22.
• Spot cheese declined today, falling 4.875 cents to close at $1.51125/lb, while spot whey remained unchanged at $0.640/lb.
• Class IV milk finished mostly higher today, as the May contract gained 21 cents to settle at $19.50.
• Spot butter moved lower, dropping 4.25 cents to close at $1.8525/lb, while spot powder rose 1.50 cents to finish at $1.7225/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg