CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market faced technical selling pressure following Tuesday’s WASDE report, with concerns over trade policy and an unchanged balance sheet weighing on prices. This sparked additional long liquidation as traders reassessed positions.
• Weekly ethanol production declined to 312 million gallons, down 9 million gallons from the previous week but still 3.7% higher than a year ago. Corn usage for ethanol totaled 106 mb, continuing to outpace the USDA’s target for the marketing year.
• The recent weakness in crude oil prices has squeezed margins for ethanol producers. Production has remained overall strong, but ethanol stocks are high at 27.4 million barrels. The combination of tighter margins and trade concerns with Canada for ethanol exports could limit production in weeks ahead as a possible trend.
• Canada farms intend to plant more corn and wheat acres in 2025 according to released Stats Canada estimates this morning. While the corn for grain acre number is small, it is intended to be 3.2% higher than last year.  Market analyst could use this as an estimate to the possible trend for U.S. producers with the USDA Prospective Plantings report to be released at the end of the month.
• Weather outlook for Brazil is mostly favorable for the second crop corn. The central and southern regions of Brazil will see friendly forecast with a good balance of rain and sunshine. The eastern portions of Brazil are reflecting concerns with an overall drier forecast trend.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans extended their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session as ongoing tariff threats created an unpredictable trade environment, prompting a risk-off tone across the grain complex. Soybean meal and oil also finished lower, despite support from rising crude oil prices.
• A Bloomberg survey is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 168.7 mmt for 24/25 which is just a hair below the USDA’s estimate. This would be 2.7 mmt higher than the agency’s last estimate in February.
• There may be some pressure on the soybean market as a result of precipitation in the forecast across areas of the country with poor soil moisture levels. The country has been very dry overall, and many traders have been looking for an upcoming rally on dry weather into planting season.
• Yesterday’s WASDE report saw US ending stocks untouched at 380 mb. There was a slight decline in world ending stocks which was the bullish part of the report, and no changes to Brazilian or Argentinian soybean production which are at 169 mmt and 49.0 mmt respectively.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat markets were mixed on the day, with Kansas City futures managing to eke out a small gain while Chicago and Minneapolis wheat settled slightly lower. A stronger U.S. dollar added pressure following Tuesday’s somewhat bearish WASDE report, though gains in Matif wheat and concerns over warmth and dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains helped prop up KC wheat.
• Geopolitical tensions remained in focus after a Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s port of Odessa reportedly killed four Syrian workers who were loading a wheat shipment. While the U.S. and Ukraine have negotiated a temporary ceasefire, Russia has yet to agree to the deal.
• The Russian ag ministry has issued an order to distribute more of the remaining 2025 wheat export quota. The 2025 quota totals 10.6 mmt between February 15 and June 30, but 8.6 mmt was already distributed in February.
• Today’s CPI data was not as bad as feared, with an increase of 0.2% in February, bringing annual inflation to 2.8%. This was 0.1% below estimates and the level from last month. This may indicate that inflation is easing, which could have broader impacts on the economy, financial markets, and the US Dollar – all of which could affect wheat prices.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures continue to rebound midweek, with April pushing up 38 cents to close at $17.82.
• Spot cheese continued to see upward momentum, gaining 4 cents to close at $1.69750/lb. Whey closed unchanged at $0.4800/lb.
• Class IV milk saw another positive day of trading, with April closing up 13 cents to close at $18.34 and May gained 25 cents to close at $18.55.
• Spot butter closed positive again, making it 6 straight sessions, closing up 1 cent at $2.3400/lb. Powder closed unchanged at $1.1600/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty