TFM Daily Market Summary 03-14-2024


  • Selling pressure and weak price action moved back into the corn market as May corn futures traded 7 ½ cents lower on the day. For the week, May corn futures are trading 6 cents lower going into Friday trade. March futures expired today with final trades at 422 ½.
  • Both US and Brazilian corn prices were pressured by improved forecasts for rain in the key production area of Brazil. Recent dry and hot temperature forecasts have pushed corn prices higher, adding some weather premium to the market.
  • The corn market was limited by strong selling pressure in the wheat market. A report that China cancelled or delayed shipment of nearly 1 mmt of Australian wheat pressured global wheat prices.
  • Weekly export sales have stayed supportive of the corn markets. The USDA announced new sales last week totaling 50.5 mb (1.283 mmt) in the weekly export sales report. This has total sales commitments at 1.595 billion bushels, up 27% from last year. Japan was the largest buyer of US corn last week.
  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn to Mexico this morning. Mexico purchased 3.8 mb (110,000 mt) of corn for the 23/24 marketing year as Mexico purchases remain strong and at record historical levels.


  • The trade in soybeans was volatile today as May futures rallied sharply above the 50-day moving average and at one point were up as much as 21 cents. There has been some early support with CONAB’s production estimates far lower than the USDA’s, but exports today were soft. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.
  • For the week ending March 7, the USDA reported an increase of 13.8 mb of soybean sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower end of trade expectations and puts soybean sales down 20% from the previous year. Although last week’s export shipments of 34.8 mb were well above the 16.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s trade expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and Mexico.
  • In Brazil, farmers have taken advantage of the soybean rally and have been more active in their sales when previously, many were holding back due to low premiums. The increase in farmer selling partially stifled today’s rally, along with a forecast for southern Brazil which is expected to receive more rain as harvest continues.
  • The NOPA crush report for February is seen at 178.058 million bushels which would be a record high for the month of February. This number would be down 4.2% from January’s crush but up 7.6% from the previous year.


  • The wheat complex finished the day lower across the board for the second day in a row, led by the KC and Chicago contracts. Reports of more Chinese cancellations rocked the wheat market and were likely the primary reason for the day’s decline.
  • It was reported that China cancelled an undisclosed amount of French wheat that was intended for replacement supplies versus new demand. Additionally, they either postponed or canceled upwards of 1 mmt of Australian wheat due to increasing world supplies and lower prices.
  • Adding to the woes of the wheat market, FranceAgriMer reported that French 23/24 ending stocks are expected to be 3.74 mmt. This is up from February’s estimate of 3.5 mmt, and the highest total since the 18/19 marketing year.
  • Moving over to Russia, IKAR, as reported by Interfax, sees Russian wheat exports near a record 50 mmt for the 24/25 season, with a wheat harvest near 93 mmt, marking a 1 mmt increase from IKAR’s November report.
  • The USDA issued its weekly export sales report this morning for the week ending March 7, that showed total net new wheat sales for the 23/24 marketing year at 3.1 mb. The total came in at the low end of expectations and included 3.9 mb of SRW cancellations that were reported previously. As for the 24/25 marketing year, the USDA reported 3.0 mb of new sales.


  • Class III futures were higher with the exception of March and May futures, but most came sharply off their morning highs before the afternoon close.
  • Spot cheese gained two cents on strong buying in blocks, which now sits at a four-cent premium to barrels. This is a 17.50 cent swing on the spread since last week.
  • Spot butter was three-quarters of a cent higher in today’s action, closing at $2.8475/lb and up 4.50 cents on the week so far. Powder was unchanged today.
  • Futures on the Class IV side were mostly higher as well with the April and May contracts pushing back over the $20.00 mark.
  • As of now, there is not a lot of information on the number of dairy cows affected by respiratory issues stemming from the Texas wildfires. There have been reports that euthanasia has started on some but it may take weeks to figure the total effect.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Amanda Brill

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