TFM Daily Market Summary 03-16-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures finished lower on the day, posting moderate losses in the front-month contracts. Despite an announced export sale in the morning, weakness in wheat and the expiration of the March futures limited gains to end the week. For the week, May corn futures closed 10 ¾ cents lower, nearly 20 cents off the highs of the week.
  • The March corn futures finished its trading life on Friday, settling at 445 ½. The softer trade on Friday limited gains in the front month contacts. May futures closed the day with a 14-cent premium to the final March trade.
  • The USDA announced a corn export sale on Friday morning. For the current marketing, U.S. exporters sold 218,604 MT (8.6 MB) to an unknown destination. This was the third reported corn export sale for the month of March.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina posted their projection for the upcoming corn harvest on Friday morning. The exchange lowered estimated production by 8 MMt to 44.5 MMT. This was a significant drop compared to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cutting the crop by only 1MMT on Thursday.
  • The weather forecast in Brazil is mostly favorable for the development of their key 2nd corn crop. Despite that, dry conditions in the east need to be monitored. The market is concerned about a possible spread into the center-south corn producing regions.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a quiet trading session that saw futures mostly unchanged until the latter part of the day. Lowered soybean production estimates from Argentina earlier this week have been supportive. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil led the complex higher, buoyed by rising crude oil prices.
  • This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA an export sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. While soybean export demand has been poor due to a large Brazilian harvest, yesterday’s export sales were above the average trade estimate for soybeans.
  • In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange has lowered its estimate for soybean production to 46.1 mmt, which is down 1 mmt from February. This comes after Brazil’s CONAB brought its estimate for production below the USDA’s guess. Also in Brazil, weather is set to be dry throughout the southern regions of the country during pod fill, which could also be supportive.
  • For the week, May soybeans lost 9 cents to $10.16 while November soybeans lost 7-1/2 cents to $10.18. The lack of carry in the market is interesting given anticipation of fewer new crop bean acres to be planted this year. May soybean meal gained $1.50 to $305.90 and May soybean oil lost 1.83 cents to 41.59 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat closed with small to moderate losses across the board. May Paris milling wheat had gapped higher yesterday but reversed to fill that gap today, ultimately closing lower. Today’s weakness comes despite ongoing concerns about dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains and the Black Sea region.
  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, spring wheat plantings are estimated at 5.7 million hectares, which is in line with year ago levels.
  • FranceAgriMer has reported their soft wheat crop condition at 74% good to excellent – this is unchanged from the week prior. However, durum wheat conditions fell 1% to 81% good to excellent.
  • The U.S. Northern Plains are forecast to receive storms bringing a mix of scattered showers and snow. The addition of heavy winds could lead to blizzard conditions, but with the current lack of soil moisture, this precipitation may be welcomed by producers as they approach spring wheat planting.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • After jumping 94 cents in the previous three days, April Class III futures fell 54 cents today.
  • Spot cheese fell 5.1250 cents today to push back under the $1.70/lb mark, still up 6.50 cents on the week. Spot whey lost 4 cents this week.
  • Class IV milk was down 3 to 10 cents in the April through November contracts today.
  • Spot butter gained 0.25 cents today for a total of 3.25 cents on the week. Spot powder was unchanged from last Friday.

 

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Author

Amanda Brill

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