CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market posted moderate losses on Monday as talk of de-escalation of the U.S.-Iran War triggered selling in the Crude oil market, which pressured both corn and wheat markets. May corn futures fell 6 cents to 459 ½, and July added losses of 5 ½ cents to 470 ½.
• Corn futures posted a second reversal off session highs on Monday as charts look top heavy above 470 for May corn and just under 500 for December corn. The next few sessions may be key technically in the corn market.
• President Trump in a Truth Social post this morning, announced a 5-day pause in hostilities toward Iran as the two sides are working on a potential deal to end the war. This triggered an over 10% selloff in crude oil prices, which pressured grains.
• USDA weekly export inspections were announced on Monday morning.  For the week ending March 19, Export inspections for corn totaled 1.700 MMT (66.9 mb). The was within market expectations. Total corn inspections are still trending 38% above last year.
• USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Monday morning. Mexico bought 102,000MT (4.0 mb) for the current marketing year. This was the first corn export sale announced since March 4.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher but traded within a 19-cent range as a post from President Trump brought volatility to commodity markets. He stated that he had had positive talks with Iran and had told the Department of War to hold off on firing missiles at Iranian power plants and infrastructure for five days. Iran claimed they had not spoken, but crude oil fell sharply anyway. Positive biofuel news brought prices back up.
• May soybeans gained 2-1/4 cents to $11.63-1/2 while November gained 5-1/2 cents to $11.46-1/2. Prices were supported by soybean oil, which was higher despite crude oil being down over $10.00 a barrel. May soybean meal was down $1.40 to $326.60 and May soybean oil was up 0.07 cents to 65.58, but may have been higher if crude had not sold off.
• Support in soybean oil came from a Reuters report stating EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said that the US biofuel blending quota announcement would be made before the end of the month. The White House’s celebration of agriculture event is this Friday, and there is speculation that it will be announced at that event.
• Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections on the high side of estimates at 40.5 million bushels for the week ending March 19. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 1.072 bb, which is down 27% from the previous year.
• This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 161,120 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico for the 25/26 marketing year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures extended losses on the day, pressured by a sharp decline in energy markets and improving weather outlooks. Crude oil fell roughly $6 to $11 per barrel following reports that President Trump ordered a halt to attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, easing supply concerns. At the same time, updated 6–10 and 8–14 day forecasts are calling for wetter conditions across the U.S. Plains, providing additional headwinds to the market. In the May contracts, Chicago wheat fell 7-1/2 cents to $5.87-3/4, Kansas City dropped 3 cents to $6.03-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat slipped 1 cent to $6.27.
• Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 16.8 mb, which brings total 25/26 inspections to 732 mb, up 18% from last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• Last week, FranceAgriMer reported that 84% of the French wheat crop is rated in good to excellent condition. And after a relatively wide daily trading range, Paris milling wheat futures ended the session with losses. This may have added to pressure on the US market today.
• Temperatures over the weekend exceeded 90 degrees Fahrenheit throughout the US central and southern plains. Readings even broke above 100 degrees in parts of the Texas panhandle. This continues to raise concerns about drought conditions, though the extended outlook calls for above normal precipitation into early April.
• According to the most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds bought just under 10,000 contracts of Chicago wheat for the week ending March 17. This reduced their net short position to about 12,700 contracts. Meanwhile, they also purchased about 1,300 Kansas City wheat contracts to bring their net long to about 10,700 contracts. Overall, the managed money net long position across the agricultural complex is now at its largest level since April 2022.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were all higher beyond the front month contract. April gained 15 cents from Friday to move to $17.39.
• Spot cheese was mixed but saw the overall average drop just a quarter cent to $1.61375/lb. Whey was unchanged.
• Class IV futures held solid gains, especially in the summer months. The second month was up 9 cents to $20.50.
• Spot butter continues to struggle in the short-term, falling 2.50 cents today to settle at $1.7750/lb. Powder was up again to $1.8775/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill