CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw selling pressure on Tuesday as a weak wheat market and an overall risk-off mindset pressured prices lower. May corn posted its lowest daily close since March 5 at the end of the session today.
• The corn market is still seeing long liquidation possibly preparing for a couple key events next week. On March 31 is the USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report, and April 2 is the next deadline date for Canada and Mexico tariffs. In addition, the market is nearing the end of the month and quarter next week, and traders are likely balancing portfolios.
• With the softening of prices, US corn will stay extremely competitive in the export market until the June/July window. This time window will bring harvested bushels from Argentina and a clearer picture of the Brazil corn crop, which could limit the demand pace.
• Brazil second crop corn planting is nearing completion, and weather for the most part has been supportive for early season development.
• On next Monday’s USDA Prospective Planting report, analysts feel the corn planting could reach 94.4 million acres according to a Bloomberg Survey. This total would be up 400,000 acres from the USDA baseline projections from the February USDA Outlook Forum.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were lower to end the day and were bear spread with the front months posting the majority of the losses while new crop beans were unchanged. Meal led the complex lower as improved weather in Argentina boosted production estimates. Soybean oil was higher along with crude oil.
• AgRural has cut its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop to 165.9 mmt on disappointing yields in the South. This is now below the USDA’s estimate of 169 mmt. Harvest in the country is 73.84% complete which is a record pace for this time of year.
• The USDA will release its planting intentions report on Monday, March 31, and the average trade estimate for soybean acres is 83.8 m with the range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. The outlook forum estimated 84.0 ma, and in 2024, 87.1 ma of soybeans were planted. These numbers would be bullish if realized.
• In South America, weather conditions have improved in southern Brazil, where 41% of the soybean crop is reportedly filling pods. Argentina has also received more rain as its crop progresses toward maturity, following a relatively dry season.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat again closed lower, pressured by lower corn and soybean futures, as well as a forecast for above normal temperatures and better precipitation chances in the US plains over the next couple weeks. Rain in the Black Sea area may have also offered some weakness as it brings relief from dry conditions.
• According to the White House, the Russian government has agreed to safe passage of ships in the Black Sea following peace talks in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the US will help to restore Russian ag and fertilizer exports.
• SovEcon is said to have once again lowered their estimate of Russian wheat exports, this time by 1.5 mmt to 40.7 mmt. For reference, the USDA export projection is still sitting at 45 mmt.
• Select states released updated winter wheat crop ratings. Top producer, Kansas, saw a 1% improvement to 49% good to excellent. There were also improvements of 3% in Texas to 31%, and 6% in Colorado to 66%. But after the recent heavy winds and dryness, there was a decline of 9% to 37% good to excellent in Oklahoma.
• According to the European Union Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARS), grains are in fairly good condition and are in better shape than last year. Additionally, soft wheat yields are estimated at 6.00 mt per hectare, which is above last year’s 5.58 and a five-year average of 5.77.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A second day of steady bidding by cheese buyers is helping to give Class III milk a boost. So far this week the block/barrel average has regained 6.125c.
• The February Cold Storage report said cheese stocks rose 2% from January to February, while butter stocks added 17% from last month.
• Nearby Class III contracts are retesting their 20-day moving averages with this rally. Additional spot market bidding will be needed for the trend to change directions.
• Q4 2025 Class III milk futures are starting to get bid higher. The average is sitting nearly 40c off of the recent low – up to $18.56 today.
• Class IV milk is still struggling, with active selling in the powder and butter spot markets.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty