CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• It was a tough day in corn markets as prices broke to the bottom of the most recent trading range, and more importantly below support of nearby moving averages. The weak price action and technical picture may have the corn market set up for further selling pressure going into Wednesday’s session.
• The overall tone in grain markets was weak, and double-digit losses in the wheat market helped pressure corn futures. May futures posted its lowest close since March 6.
• A strong weather system moved across the Corn Belt bringing beneficial moisture to areas that were lacking. While the rain and snow won’t relieve the overall dry conditions, improvement is likely with spring planting a few weeks away.
• The grain markets are looking toward Thursday’s USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report. Expectations are for 2024 corn acres to be near 91.78 million acres of corn. While this would be down from the 94.64 million acres planted last year, early warm temperatures this spring/late winter have the market concerned that the anticipated corn acres could be higher than expected.
• Estimated grain stocks for Thursday’s report are expected to reach 8.427 billion bushels, up 14% from last year and a 5-year high for March 1.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended lower today wiping out some of yesterday’s gains but remaining above the 50-day moving average. Rain in the eastern part of the Corn Belt has improved soil moisture levels ahead of planting, and the anticipation of the Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report showing higher soybean acres has pressed futures lower.
• Palm oil has rallied significantly over the past few weeks but has begun to slide, which in turn has pressured soybean oil. Bean oil is now well off its lows and currently rangebound and sitting just below the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal ended lower today and will likely face further pressure when the Argentine harvest is complete, and the country has more meal to export.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest is now called at 70% complete with the key growing state of Mato Grosso reportedly finished. Brazil’s second (safrinha) crop corn plantings are also completed, and there is a slight concern for hot and dry weather. Argentina received too much rain over the past two weeks which could have negatively impacted total production.
• On Thursday, the USDA will release its US Quarterly Grain Stocks and Acres report. Soybean acres are estimated at 85.35 million acres which would be 2 million fewer than were planted last year if realized. Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.828 billion bushels which would compare with 1.687 bb a year ago.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• US wheat closed lower across the board with bear spreading noted, primarily in Chicago futures, where the front months settled weaker than the deferreds. This could be attributed to moisture moving across much of the central US, potentially enhancing already favorable wheat conditions that surpass last year’s levels. Interestingly, the market appeared unfazed by concerns of crop damage in southern states, despite projections of single-digit temperatures extending as far south as the Texas panhandle.
• Yesterday after hitting the highest level since early February, Paris milling wheat futures reversed course to a lower close. Today they finished the session in the red again, which offered weakness to the US market. And while Russian FOB values have risen about $10 over the past two weeks, they remain very cheap compared to other origins – this may explain some of the weakness.
• In Thursday’s USDA report, the trade is looking for 47.7 million wheat acres. This would be down from 49.6 ma last year, but stocks are also expected to increase to 1.053 bb versus 941 mb last year. If realized, that would be the highest March 1 wheat stocks total in three years.
• The European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit forecasts an increase in the EU’s soft wheat yields from 5.82 to 5.91 tonnes per hectare, marking a 2% year-over-year rise. While acknowledging that the crop’s condition is mediocre in many European regions, they anticipate yields coming in above the five-year average.
• Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Minister, Aidarbek Saparov, anticipates a grain harvest of 13-14 million metric tons (mmt) this year. Wheat plantings are projected to cover a total of 13.3 million hectares, reflecting a 3% decrease from 2023. Notably, last year’s grain production amounted to 16.4 mmt, suggesting that this reduction may necessitate increased imports in the future.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were all 2 to 10 cents higher with the exception of the soon-to-expire March contract. Second month April finished at $15.85.
• Spot cheese was up a quarter-cent on 14 loads traded, trying to hold long-term support around the $1.40/lb area once again. Spot whey gained a half-cent to move back to $0.40/lb.
• Class IV futures were unchanged outside of a 3-cent loss in the May contract. That contract will take over as the running second month next week and sits 5 cents above April futures currently.
• After jumping 5.50 cents yesterday, spot butter was down 3.25 cents today. Powder was unchanged.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill