CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Downward momentum continued to control the corn market, with prices retreating from early session highs to post moderate losses. The market faced pressure from a lack of fresh news, ongoing concerns about tariffs, and positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA’s data dump.
• The poor price action and a weak technical close on Wednesday are likely to keep sellers active during the overnight session into Thursday. May corn closed below the 200-day moving average, marking its lowest daily close since December 20.
• Momentum traders look to be in control of the market based on technical factors. The 20-day moving average crossed under the 100-day moving average, which is an indicator of downward momentum in the corn market.  This triggers traders to keep selling the price jumps in the market for the near term.
• Ethanol production fell to 1,053K bpd for the week ending March 21. This was down from 1,105K bpd from last week. Ethanol stocks continue to rise at 27.4 million barrels, up 1.3 million barrels over last year’s levels. It is estimated 100.2 mb of corn was used last week, down from 105.1 mb last week, but still slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA ethanol usage targets.
• March 31 is the USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report; the market is anticipating grain stocks approximately 200 mb under last year, supported by good demand and usage in the quarter. Analysts expect corn acres to jump to 94.36 million acres of corn, up approximately 3.8 million acres versus 2024.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months slightly lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade ahead of the planting intentions report on Monday. Soybeans have been very rangebound since the beginning of the month with little fresh news. Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil was higher.
• Estimates for the planting intentions report on the 31st say 83.8 million acres of soybeans planted with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s estimate of 84.0 ma and 87.1 ma last year.
• On Monday, the US Quarterly Grain Stocks will be released as well with soybean stocks estimated to rise to 1.901 billion bushels from 1.845 bb a year ago at this time. Soybean stocks were at 3.100 billion bushels on December 1st.
• In South America, weather conditions have improved in southern Brazil, where 41% of the soybean crop is reportedly filling pods. Argentina has also received more rain as its crop progresses toward maturity, following a relatively dry season.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Chicago futures led the wheat complex lower today, with a stronger US dollar and a lack of fresh news contributing to the weakness.
• Discussions of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine may have added pressure on wheat prices. The Russian government stated that certain conditions must be met first, including the restoration of its state bank’s access to the SWIFT payment system.
• Pre-report estimates suggest that wheat plantings may be up by 700,000 acres. This is largely due to higher winter wheat seedings, with expectations that spring and durum acres will see little change versus last year. Furthermore, March 1 wheat stocks are anticipated at 1.215 bb, which is up 125 mb from a year ago.
• According to the European Commission, since the season began on July 1, EU soft wheat exports have reached 15.5 mmt as of March 23. That is down 35% from the 23.7 mmt of exports during the same timeframe last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures closed mixed today, with April losing 10 cents to settle at $17.08.
• Spot cheese lost yesterday’s momentum during midweek trade, falling 0.75 cents to close at $1.6300/lb. Similarly, spot whey followed suit, closing down 1 cent at $0.500/lb.
• Spot butter saw positive movement today, gaining 1.25 cents to close at $2.3300/lb. Spot powder also closed higher, adding 2 cents to settle at $1.1600/lb.
• Class IV closed the day with very little trading volume, with only the July-25 contract seeing movement, losing 4 cents to close at $18.06.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg