TFM Daily Market Summary 03-27-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday


  • The corn market saw additional long liquidation before the USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report on Thursday. May futures settled their lowest price level in three weeks.
  • The correction in the corn market is tied to the market correcting from its recent over-bought technical condition as a product of the latest rally in corn.
  • For Thursday’s USDA report, expectations are for 2024 corn acres to be near 91.78 million. This would be down from the 94.64 million acres planted last year. Estimated grain stocks for Thursday’s report are expected to reach 8.427 billion bushels, up 14% from last year and a 5-year high for March 1.
  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn sales are trending ahead of pace and supporting corn prices. Expectations are for new sales to range from 800,000 – 1.3 mmt for old crop corn. Last week, export sales totaled 1.185 mmt.


  • Soybeans finished lower for a second consecutive day, but the May contract has managed to hold above the 50-day moving average. Soybean oil lost over 2.5% and was pressured by a decline in palm oil prices while soybean meal closed only slightly lower.
  • Some of the weakness in soybeans is likely due to anticipation of tomorrow’s Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report where soybean acres are expected to increase. Soybean acres are estimated to come in at 85.35 million which would be 2 million fewer than were planted last year if realized. Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.828 billion bushels which would compare with 1.687 bb last year.
  • With significant discrepancies between CONAB’s and the USDA’s estimates for Brazilian soybean production, Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult has now increased their estimates to 156.5 mmt citing an expansion of estimated planted area. This estimate is much closer to the USDA’s guess of 157 mmt and brings doubts to CONAB’s guess of 146 mmt.
  • While export demand has been weak due to cheaper Brazilian soybeans, domestic demand has been firm. Cash crush margins in Illinois, have slipped around 21 cents since last week but remain profitable enough to keep processors purchasing cash beans.


  • Wheat prices closed mostly higher, particularly in Chicago and Minneapolis futures, although Kansas City futures settled mixed. These gains occurred in the absence of significant bullish news and despite pressure from the US Dollar Index, which remained near its recent high above the 104 level. Paris milling wheat also closed mixed, with the May contract marking its third consecutive session lower, while September and December futures experienced slight gains.
  • The average pre-report estimate for all wheat acreage on tomorrow’s USDA report stands at 47.7 million acres, marking a decline from last year’s 49.6 million acres. Additionally, quarterly grain stocks are expected to reach 1.053 billion bushels compared to 941 million bushels a year ago. Despite the projected decrease in acreage compared to last year, it remains possible that trendline yields and weak demand could still result in a higher carryout number for the 24/25 season.
  • March wheat exports out of Russia could hit a record 5 mmt. While their FOB export values have increased to $206/mt, they remain well below the $225/mt US SRW wheat values, and may limit upside movement for US wheat.
  • As of March 23, the European Commission reported that EU soft wheat exports for the season, which began on July 1, amounted to 22.8 million metric tons (mmt). This reflects a 2% decrease compared to the previous year’s figure of 23.2 mmt. Leading the list of importers was Morocco, with 3.32 mmt, followed by Nigeria and Algeria


  • Class III milk finished Wednesday double-digits lower in most contracts, falling as many as 32c in both the May and June contracts.
  • A 1.75c drop in both the spot cheese block and barrel market is the reason for the pressure on futures.
  • The block/barrel average cheese price is back down to $1.41375/lb, which sits right near multi-year lows.
  • At close on the spot trade, butter gained a penny to $2.84/lb, whey added 0.25c to $0.4025/lb, and powder fell 0.25c to $1.12/lb.
  • Volume traded in Class III futures was relatively high, at 2,919 contracts in the 2024 strip. Class IV saw just 1 contract trade.

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Brandon Doherty

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