CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The front end of the corn market saw some short covering and potential value buying to close out Friday’s session, with corn futures ending mixed. New crop prices remained under pressure due to expectations that the USDA’s prospective planting report will forecast a significant increase in planted acres for the upcoming spring planting season. For the week, May corn futures finished 11 cents lower.
• USDA will release the Prospective Plantings report on Monday, March 31. Expectations for corn acres are to be near 94.36 million acres, up nearly 3.8 million acres from last year. The analyst range is wide from 92.5-96.6 million acres. The prospect of an exceptionally large acreage forecast is limiting the new crop corn market in anticipation of Monday’s report.
• The USDA will also release the March 1 Grain Stocks report on Monday, with expectations for total corn stocks to be around 8.151 bb. This would represent a decrease of nearly 200 mb from last year’s report, although demand remained strong during the quarter. One area of uncertainty could be feed usage, as lower numbers of cattle, hogs, and poultry, along with favorable feed wheat prices, may have limited corn usage for feed during the quarter.
• Besides Monday’s report, the grain markets will be watch and development of trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico as the deadline for the April 2 extension nears. Mexico remains the largest buyer of US corn on the export market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher for the second consecutive day, recovering from early morning lows as traders seem to be factoring in a lower acreage figure in anticipation of Monday’s Planting Intentions report. Soybean oil led the rally within the complex, driven by President Trump’s endorsement of a new biofuel policy, while soybean meal ended the day lower.
• Estimates for the planting intentions report on Monday see soybean acreage coming in at 83.8 million acres with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s guess of 84.0 ma and last year’s plantings of 87.1 ma.
• For the week, May soybeans gained 13-1/4 cents while November soybeans gained 21-1/4. The deferred months saw larger gains due to the expected decline in planted acres. May soybean meal lost $6.80 on the week finishing at $293.50 while May soybean oil gained 3.15 cents to 45.16 cents, the highest level since the end of February.
• U.S. soybean export demand has been on a downward trend, largely due to the abundant supply of soybeans coming out of Brazil. Brazil’s soybean exports for March are expected to reach 15.6 mmt more than 2 mmt higher than the same period last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted losses across all classes, with Kansas City futures leading the decline. The weakness was driven by an increased precipitation forecast, particularly with the European weather model predicting significant rainfall in the U.S. Southern Plains next week.
• According to the European Commission, 25/26 grain production in the EU is forecast at 280.7 mmt, which would be 10% above the 24/25 season. That is also about 3% over the five-year average. Soft wheat is estimated at 126.5 mmt for next season, which is 13% above the current season.
•  The Russian deputy ag minister has stated that their nation harvested 129.8 mmt of grain in 2024, according to data from Rosstat. He went on to say that despite last year’s unfavorable weather, it was a decent harvest.
• The average pre-report estimates for wheat acreage, based on a Dow Jones survey, comes in at 46.4 million acres. This would be up 300,000 acres from 2024. When broken down by class, it would be 33.9 ma of winter wheat, 10.5 ma of spring wheat, and 2.1 ma of durum wheat. As far as stocks go, the average pre-report estimate is 1.22 bb as of March 1 – this would be up 12% versus 2024.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures contracts for 2025 all saw lower trading aside from the August contract which improved 7 cents to $18.31. The December contract saw the largest loss of 18 cents to $18.20.
• Spot cheese gave up some gains made yesterday, closing 0.625 cents lower to $1.6350/lb. Whey improved half a cent to close right at the $0.50/lb level.
• Class IV contracts saw a slight boost in price today. June futures gained 18 cents while July tacked on 21 cents to close at $17.78 and $18.27 respectively.
• Spot butter fell 1.25 cents to close at $2.35/lb while powder increased 1.25 cents to close at $1.1625/lb.

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Author

Amberlee Bratcher