CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn market saw selling pressure to start the week as the market still weighing out the recent USDA report for planting intentions and grain stocks. While overall numbers were better than expected the supply of corn in the front end and projected long term still limits the market.
• The USDA Weekly export inspections were supportive on Monday morning. Last week total corn inspections were 1.432 MMT (54.6 mb), above the high end of market expectations. Year-to-date, total inspections have reached 25.87 MMT (1.018 bb), up 34% over last year.
• Improved precipitation forecast for the corn belt are likely to Improve areas of the corn belt still reflected on the drought monitor maps. U.S. weather is looking more favorable for a potential good start to the 2024 U.S. corn crop.
• Brazil weather is still trending overall favorable for development of the second corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South America weather will stay as a key market driver in the weeks ahead.
• Managed money grew their short positions in the corn market last week as prices slid into the USDA Acres and Grain Stocks report. Funds are now net short 251,730 contracts on last week’s Commitment of Trader’s report. This was an increase of 8,742 net short positions.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans finished the day lower despite a higher start. Last week’s USDA report showed planting intentions and stocks within the average trade guesses, but the increase in acres was still bearish. Soybean oil had provided support earlier in the day but faded slightly to close higher while soybean meal ended the day lower.
• Today, soybean inspections were released and totaled 15.2 mb for the week ending March 28. This was lower than the lowest end of the trade range and puts total inspections at 1,359 mb which is down 19% from the previous year.
• In January, soybean oil for use in US biofuel production fell to 960 million pounds from 1,141 million pounds in December. Despite this, crush demand is strong and soybean crush is seen at 196.7 mb in February which would be up 11.2% from the previous year.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 26 by 13,559 contracts leaving them net short 134,780 contracts, but it is estimated that on Thursday following the USDA report, they sold 1,500 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three US wheat classes posted losses today. The US Dollar Index was also up sharply today, breaking above the 105 mark and to the highest level since mid-November. This put some pressure on the grain complex and wheat in particular, as it makes it more expensive for importing countries to buy US ag goods.
• Weekly wheat inspections at 18.3 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections now to 543 mb. That is down 12% from last year and inspections are running behind the pace to meet the USDA’s goal.
• According to the CFTC as of March 26, managed funds increased their short position in Chicago wheat by 14.3% to 92,102 contracts, from 80,570 previously. The Kansas City wheat short increased by 12.6% from 37,857 to 42,658 contracts.
• Ukraine’s grain exports have totaled 34.6 mmt since the season began on July 1. That is a 7.5% decline year on year. However, their wheat exports in particular have seen a 7.5% increase since last year at 13.7 mmt. Of that total, 1.9 mmt was shipped in March.
• Reportedly, the Indian government is mandating that traders, food processors, and retailers must report wheat stocks every Friday in April. This is in an effort to prevent hoarding; India had a previous limit on how much wheat that traders could hold, but this expired at the end of March. In addition, their government surplus of wheat is said to be the lowest since 2017 at 9.7 mmt.
• SovEcon has reported that Russia had shipped 1.02 mmt of grain last week, with 840,000 mt of that being wheat. That total is down from 1.27 mmt previously, while the previous week’s wheat shipments were at 1.27 mmt. In addition, IKAR has said that Russian wheat FOB values ended at $208 per mt last week, resulting in the third weekly increase in a row.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese improved on Monday to $1.43625/lb. Blocks gained 2 cents while barrels gained 0.75 cents. Whey also saw a small improvement to get to $0.4050/lb.
• Class III closed lower again despite a decent showing in the spot market for Class III products. The 2024 Class III average lost 6 cents to close right at $17.00/cwt.
• Spot butter gained 0.75 cents to $2.85/lb while powder was unchanged at $1.12/lb.
• Class IV futures were able to see positive movement thanks to a stronger butter market. June Class IV futures led the way improving 12 cents at $20.12/cwt. The 2024 Class IV average also climbed 4 cents to $20.34/cwt.

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Author

Amanda Brill