CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Choppy, two-sided trade dominated today’s session as the corn market was looking for direction. Weekly export sales were sluggish for corn compared to recent weeks, but an overall firmer tone in the wheat market supported prices as the corn market continues to consolidate.
• USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. Last week’s new sales commitments were 37.3 mb (948,000 mt) for the marketing year. This is the first time since mid-February that corn sales were under the 1.0 mmt mark. Japan was the largest buyer of US corn last week.
• Export shipments last week were 64.6 mb. This was well above the 45.1 mb needed to reach the USDA export target of 2.100 billion bushels for the marketing year. Total corn export commitments are running 18% ahead of last year.
• Weather forecasts for the US are signaling a warmer and dryer pattern going into mid-month. That combination and recent rain fall over the past week improved the chances for the next US corn crop to get off to a good start.
• Brazil weather remains unthreatening overall for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower but backed off their early morning lows thanks to support from higher soybean meal and a flash sale reported by the USDA. Soybean oil traded lower today due to a decline in palm oil, but the overall trend is higher thanks to strong demand.
• This morning, the USDA reported an increase of just 7.1 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 which was below the lower end of trade estimates. Soybeans sales commitments are now down 19% from last year. Last week’s export shipments were 20.2 mb and were above the 14.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and the Netherlands.
• With Brazil’s harvest nearing 80% complete, they have dominated global export sales with cheaper offers than from the US. Estimated Brazilian production is still unclear with the USDA projecting 156 mmt but Brazil’s CONAB closer to 146 mmt. There is rain forecast in South America which could slow the harvest pace.
• This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 5.6 mb of old crop soybeans to Mexico for the 23/24 marketing year which was supportive, and the first flash sale reported in weeks. Export demand is low overall, but domestic demand remains firm thanks to profitable crush margins.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had a mixed close today and earlier gains faded by the end of the session. A poor export sales figure, along with May Matif wheat breaking below 200 Euros both weighed on US futures.
• The USDA reported an increase of only 0.6 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 9.6 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 19.0 mb were above the 18.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb.
• Aston, a Russian grain shipping company has come out and denied reports that some of their vessels are being held in port by the Russian government. A spokesperson from the company said that phytosanitary requirements are being fully observed. Of note, however, are new reports suggesting that a different company, Grainflower DMCC, has shipments being held up by the Russian government.
• The US 24/25 winter wheat production may increase 2% to 35.6 million tons, according to LSEG commodities research. Additionally, they are estimating yield at 50.3 bpa, which would be up 3.1% from the trend yield.
• According to the USDA as of April 2, about 18% of the US winter wheat area is experiencing drought conditions. This represents a 1% increase from the previous week. At the same time, approximately 25% of the spring wheat area is in drought – this is unchanged from last week.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.4450/lb today but saw 18 loads traded between the two products. It enters Friday up 2.25 cents on the week.
• Spot butter dropped a penny today but is still up solidly on the week, and spot powder has gained 2.50 cents through the last four days to help the Class IV market.
• The now second month Class III May contract closed 27 cents higher at $15.91. Meanwhile, its Class IV counterpart was 11 cents higher to $20.30.
• February Dairy exports were up 9% from February 2023 and up 12% from the month prior to a total of 227,290 metric tons.
• Cheese exports were a very solid 43,348 metric tons, second only to June 2022 for the best month on record.

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Author

Amanda Brill