CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures were under selling pressure with the rest of the Ag commodity markets as money flows exited long positions. The potential larger acres forecast and heavy supplies picture limited gains in the market. May corn lost 5 cents to 449, and July futures fell 5 ¼ cents to 460.
• The close on May futures was the lowest close since March 5, basically removing the war premium from the market due to the US-Iran conflict. Old crop corn charts are testing key levels of support as momentum has declined.
• Market was likely seeing some position squaring ahead of the 8:00 EST deadline established by President Trump for some agreement regarding Iran. The market is concerned regarding a possible escalation of tensions if the deadline passes with some form of resolution.
• The USDA will release the April WASDE report on Thursday, April 8. The corn market will be watching how the USDA takes the information from the Grain Stocks Report and applies it to the old crop balance sheet.
• Brazil second crop corn, which represent 75% of the Brazil supplies, is mostly complete. Focus will be on weather, which at this point is mostly favorable except for drier areas in Southern Brazil.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures closed lower on the day as traders remained cautious ahead of a key deadline tied to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with the risk of further U.S. escalation targeting energy infrastructure. Despite crude oil rallying as high as $117 per barrel on heightened supply concerns , soybean oil moved lower, while soybean meal led the complex to the downside.
• May soybeans lost 8-1/2 cents to $11.58-1/4 but still remains within its recent trading range from the past month. November soybeans lost 6 cents to $11.51, May soybean meal lost $4.80 to $311.80, and May soybean oil lost 0.23 cents to 69.72 cents.
• This Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report and estimates for US ending stocks for 25/26. Traders see soybeans at 349 million bushels which would be virtually unchanged from last month. Argentinian soybean production is expected to be unchanged at 48.1 mmt and Brazilian production is also expected to be unchanged at 179.9 mmt. World ending stocks are called slightly higher.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 779k tons which compared to 694k last week and 817k a year ago. Top destinations were to China, Mexico, and Egypt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed mixed after trading both sides of unchanged throughout the session. Support came from lower-than-expected winter wheat crop ratings and a weaker U.S. dollar, while improving moisture forecasts for the southern Plains limited upside.
• Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key wildcard, with markets watching a deadline tied to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for further U.S. action if conditions are not met. In the May contracts, Chicago wheat gained 2-3/4 cents to $5.98, Kansas City slipped 3/4 cent to $6.07-1/2, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 3-1/2 cents to $6.41.
• Yesterday afternoon the USDA released the first crop progress report of the season. The winter wheat crop was rated 35% good to excellent, well below the 48% rating a year ago. Additionally, 7% of that crop was headed, versus 5% last year. The spring wheat crop was 2% planted, down 1% from last year and the five-year average.
• This Thursday will feature the monthly USDA supply and demand report. A poll from Reuters suggests that US wheat ending stocks will fall 8 mb to 923 mb. Global wheat carryout is expected to rise 0.4 mmt to 277.4 mmt.
• Grain cargo exports via Russian railways increased 17.1% month over month to 2.6 mmt in March. The major grains (corn, wheat, and barley) reached 2.2 mmt of exports – wheat accounted for 1.97 mmt of that total.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a strong week last week, milk futures are on the defensive to begin the month of April.
• May Class III fell 52c on Tuesday after giving up 31c on Monday. The market now sits $1.12 off of yesterday’s high.
• A continued cool down in the butter market is weighing on prices. Butter dropped another 0.50c today and closed at its lowest level since February 18th.
• This morning’s Global Dairy Trade auction saw the index fall 3.40%, with butter dropping a whopping 8.10%. Cheddar fell 3.10%.
• The cheese market isn’t gaining much traction, and day to day movement has been minimal. The block/barrel average fell 0.125c Tuesday to $1.63125/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty