CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures closed lower but rebounded from overnight lows, as heavy selling in wheat and energy markets added pressure. May corn lost 1 ¾ cents to 447 ¼, while July corn slipped 2 cents to 458.
• News of a U.S.–Iran ceasefire weighed heavily on energy markets, triggering long liquidation. Front-month May crude oil futures dropped more than 15% on the session, contributing to sharp losses in wheat and spilling over into corn.
• Ethanol production last week rebounded to 328 million gallons of production. This was up from 316 million gallons the week before.  A total of 111 MB of corn was used last week in ethanol production. This total was ahead of the pace needed to reach the 5.600 BB target established by the USDA.
• USDA will release the Weekly Export sale report on Thursday morning. Expectations for new corn sales are to range from 750,000MT –1.6 MMT of corn sold for the week ending April 2. Last week, USDA reported a total of 1.149 MMT sold.
• The USDA will release the April WASDE report on Thursday, April 8. The corn market will be watching how the USDA takes the information from the Grain Stocks Report and applies it to the old crop balance sheet. Expectations are for small adjustments to current corn carryout projections.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly higher despite huge losses in soybean oil, which was driven lower by a massive move lower in crude oil. Support in soybeans likely came from a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar which has made U.S. beans more competitive with Brazil. All of these large moves follow last night’s news that the US and Iran would enter a cease-fire for two weeks and open the Strait of Hormuz.
• May soybeans gained 3-3/4 cents to 1162, but the overnight low was 1140-1/2, which broke the downward part of the recent range. November soybeans gained 1 cent to 1152, May soybean meal gained $2.30 to $314.10, and May soybean oil lost 2.30 cents to 67.42 cents. May crude oil is currently down $17.89 to $95.08.
• Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see US ending stocks for soybeans at 349 million bushels which would be virtually unchanged from last month. Argentinian soybean production is expected to be unchanged at 48.1 mmt and Brazilian production is also expected to be unchanged at 179.9 mmt. World ending stocks are called slightly higher.
• An extended peace deal with Iran could free up President Trump to meet with China’s President Xi as planned in mid-May. This could open the door for China to purchase more old crop US soybeans. Without more Chinese purchases, the USDA could lower export demand for soybeans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed sharply lower in all three classes due to rains in the US forecast, as well as sharply lower energy prices. Front-month crude oil fell more than $20 per barrel at one point after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. European markets also weighed on sentiment, as MATIF wheat posted a sharply lower close that left a gap on the charts. In the May contract, Chicago fell 17-3/4 cents to 580-1/4, Kansas City dropped 12-1/4 cents to 595-1/4, and MIAX lost 17 cents to 624.
• Tomorrow morning, traders will receive data from the monthly WASDE report. The average pre-report estimate of US 25/26 wheat ending stocks is pegged at 921 mb, which would be a reduction of 10 mb from last month. Meanwhile, global 25/26 wheat carryout is anticipated to rise by 0.3 mmt to 277.3 mmt.
• Argus has increased their estimate of Russia’s 2026 wheat production by 2.2 mmt to 88.7 mmt. Though this is an increase, it would still fall below last year’s 90.4 mmt harvest. Furthermore, Rusagrotrans is estimating that Russia will export 3.7 mmt of wheat during the month of April. If realized, this would far exceed the 2.4 mmt shipped in April last. For reference, the five-year average is close to 3 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk extended its midweek losses, with the May contract dropping another 27 cents to settle at $17.11.
• Spot cheese fell 5.375 cents, closing at $1.5775/lb, while spot whey gained 1 cent to settle at $0.700/lb.
• Class IV milk found support during today’s session, with May gaining 9 cents and June posting a stronger move higher, up 17 cents.
• Spot butter fell 2 cents to close at $1.7275/lb, while spot powder gained 4 cents, settling at $2.250/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg