CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market rallied into the session’s close, finishing with moderate gains driven by demand and the latest tariff news.
• During the session, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, except China. China tariffs were increased to 125% on imports of Chinese goods to counter the increased tariffs China installed last night. The announced pause for 90 days in tariffs sent markets sharply higher across most markets. Corn futures traded off the lows for the session.
• USDA will release weekly exports sales on Thursday morning for corn. For the week ending April 3, new corn sales are expected to range from 700,000 MT –1.3 MMT for the current marketing year. Last week’s sales totaled 1.173 MMT as export demand remains strong.
• The USDA will release the April WASDE report on Thursday. Expectations for the report could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports. Current analyst expectations are for corn carryout to be reduced to 1.510 mb, down 30 mb from the March report.
• Brazil Agriculture agency, CONAB, will release the next round of production estimates early on Thursday morning. The corn market will be looking for an adjustment in the Brazil corn crop, especially on the key second crop corn.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following breaking news that President Trump would suspend tariffs on most countries for 90 days, while increasing Chinese tariffs to 125% effective immediately. Both soybean meal and oil also rallied in response to the news.
• China has purchased only a minimal amount of soybeans so far this year, making the tariff news bullish overall, but particularly supportive for soybean oil. With tariffs on Chinese cooking oil now so high, imports are likely to slow, boosting domestic demand.
• Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and estimates show U.S. ending stocks increasing slightly by 2 mb to 382 mb and exports being reduced by 8 mb. World ending stocks are expected to increase slightly to 121.9 mmt.
• The Bloomberg survey for Brazilian soybean production has estimated the figure just slightly below CONAB’s last guess at 167.8 mmt compared to CONAB’s 167.37. The range is between 167 and 169 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Markets rallied into the close after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, excluding China. While wheat finished the day in positive territory, the gains were modest, as wheat seems to have been least affected by the tariff news. However, today’s lower close for Matif wheat futures, combined with the stronger U.S. dollar, may have limited the upside potential for the U.S. wheat market.
• Tomorrow, traders will receive the USDA’s monthly supply and demand data. No major changes are expected for the wheat market though. U.S. 24/25 wheat carryout is expected to increase slightly, from 819 mb last month to 822 mb on the average pre-report estimate. World ending stocks are anticipated to be neutral as well – the average guess is 260.8 mmt versus 260.1 mmt in March.
• According to IKAR, Russian 2025 grain production is estimated at 129.5 mmt, which is up from last year’s 125.9 mmt. Of the 2025 total, however, wheat is expected to account for 82.5 mmt, which would be slightly above the level from a year ago.
• The European Commission has stated that since the season began on July 1, EU soft wheat exports have reached 16.4 mmt as of April 6. This represents a 34% decline from the 25 mmt shipped during the same period last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures had an overall positive day, with May up 47 cents, closing at $17.39, and June up 58 cents, closing at $17.31.
• Spot cheese continued its upward momentum, gaining another 1.1250 cents today to close at $1.7400/lb, while whey lost 1.25 cents, closing at $0.4800/lb.
• Spot butter posted gains, adding 0.25 cents to close at $2.3125/lb, while spot powder followed suit, gaining 0.50 cents to close at $1.1575/lb.
• Class IV futures saw little movement today, with both May and June contracts adding 2 cents.

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Author

John Heinberg