CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished with strong gains to end the week as money flow moved into the grain markets after yesterday’s friendly USDA Supply/Demand report. July corn futures ended at their highest level since February 27, finishing just shy of the key psychological 500 mark. For the week, July gained 29 ¾ cents.
• The USDA lowered 2024-25 corn carryout to 1.465 BB, coming in below trade expectations. The tighter supply outlook helped trigger fresh buying, with many analysts suggesting carryout could tighten further amid continued strong demand.
• New crop prices led the rally Friday, supported by growing concerns over longer-term supply. With a smaller old crop carry-in, new crop balance sheets could tighten quickly if production disappoints—even with the large acreage forecasted this spring.
• The U.S. Dollar Index broke to its lowest levels since 2022, before finding some support. A friendly inflation report helped trigger a weaker dollar in the Friday session. The weaker dollar should help keep U.S. corn export prices competitive globally despite the recent tariff activity.
• Despite a counter move by the Chinese government raising tariffs to 145% on U.S. goods on Thursday, the grain markets shook off the news. In the near-term, China has “zero” bushels of old crop corn on the export books, and minimal soybeans. The longer-term demand could be a factor if the current trade war continues.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the week on a higher note across the entire soy complex supported by the early morning sale of 121,000 mt of U.S. soybeans to an unknown destination and by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, which fell to multiyear lows.
• Soybean futures also gained support as strong Chinese demand drove Brazilian soybean prices sharply higher, lifting them to a premium of nearly 20 cents per bushel to the U.S. offerings. Additionally, market chatter suggests China may continue large-scale purchases of Brazilian soybeans through September 2025.
• As China ramps up its soybean purchases from South America, fewer South American soybeans remain available for the rest of the world—potentially opening the door for increased demand for U.S. soybeans. Brazilian farmers report having already sold over 50% of this year’s soybean harvest, marking a record for April.
• Upcoming weather may pose a bearish factor for both U.S. and Brazilian growing regions, with forecasts predicting periods of moisture and a slight increase in temperatures across Brazil. While some areas in the Midwest and Eastern U.S. are dealing with saturated soils, it remains too early to give these conditions significant weight. However, with U.S. soybean acreage expected to drop to a five-year low, even minor weather issues in the U.S. this summer could tighten both the U.S. and global balance sheets.
• Adding to an already thin bullish fundamental outlook is another reduction in Argentina’s soybean production forecast, lowered by 1 million metric tons due to decreased acreage. Additionally, frost may have affected some of the production in the region.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat climbed higher, led by Chicago futures. Strength can be attributed to a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures, another sharp decline for the U.S. dollar, and spillover support from higher corn and soybeans. Additionally, news outlets are reporting that Russian winter crops may have seen some hail damage earlier in the week.
• According to the USDA as of April 8, an estimated 32% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions – this is up 1% from the week prior. Spring wheat production areas in drought increased from 39% to 43% during the same timeframe.
• Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has reported that their total grain exports have reached 33.8 mmt since the season began on July 1. This is down about 8.8% year over year. Of the total, wheat accounts for 13.4 mmt , which was approximately 8% lower year over year.
• The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has estimated that their wheat planted area will fall by about 400,000 hectares this year to 4.19 million. This is a decline of 9% and is said to be partly due to a lack of available fallow land.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The spot trade helped Class III come off its lows, but May futures still lost 18 cents on the day while June and July were down more than 30 cents.
• The block/barrel average finished positive for the sixth straight day, jumping 1.50 cents for a weekly gain of 12.50 cents. Spot whey finished the week down 2.50 cents.
• The June through August Class IV contracts held small gains on Friday, while the rest were unchanged.
• Spot powder was even with yesterday’s close, gaining a penny on the week, while butter was 5.25 cents up from last Friday.

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Author

Brandon Doherty