CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw selling for the third consecutive day as the July contract has traded nearly 20 cents of the most recent high. A strong U.S. dollar and weakness in the wheat market kept a lid on corn prices for the session.
• The U.S. Dollar Index has bounced from recent lows this week, trending higher as market fears surrounding tariffs and trade policy begin to ease. The stronger greenback continues to cap upside potential in corn by dampening export competitiveness.
• Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.033 million barrels per day, up 297.5 million barrels from the previous week and 8% above year-ago levels. Ethanol use accounted for 103.5 million bushels of corn last week — just shy of the pace needed to meet USDA annual projections.
• Traders are eyeing Thursday’s weekly export sales report, with expectations for corn sales between 800,000 and 1.3 MMT. Last week’s total came in at 1.561 MMT, highlighting continued strong demand for U.S. corn.
• With First Notice Day for May corn approaching on April 30, producers are under pressure to price basis contracts. Meanwhile, traders holding long positions must exit to avoid delivery — often leading to additional downside pressure in the market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day amid further discussions that President Trump might lower tariffs on certain goods from China. Futures were bull spread with the front months posting the majority of gains and November just 1 cent higher. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil was higher despite a selloff in crude.
• U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.
• Market sentiment was lifted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks to investors suggesting a trade deal with China could materialize “sooner than later.” China remains heavily reliant on Brazilian soybean imports for now.
• Estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 500k and 700k metric tons. While China has not been a very active buyer of U.S. soybeans, their demand for Brazilian beans has been supportive to prices globally.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower again, continuing to be influenced by the wetter weather in the southern plains. Rainfall totals between 1.5–3 inches are expected, easing drought stress and improving prospects for the winter wheat crop. A stronger U.S. Dollar added further downside pressure.
• Geopolitical uncertainty also resurfaced after reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected a U.S. proposal to recognize Russian control of Crimea in a ceasefire deal. The news renewed concerns over a prolonged conflict, which could affect grain flows out of the Black Sea region.
• Warm and wet conditions over the past couple of weeks in Ukraine have helped to relieve drought and replenish soil moisture, however the risks still remain. Some of their main wheat growing areas still have moisture deficits and above normal temperatures are expected to persist through the end of this week.
• Meanwhile, dry conditions in Argentina have supported soybean and corn harvest progress. However, the country’s winter wheat planting season begins in May, and additional rainfall will be necessary to ensure healthy crop establishment.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III Milk regained momentum midweek, with the May contract climbing 28 cents to close at $18.65.
• Spot Cheese closed lower today, slipping 2 cents to settle at $1.7725/lb, while Spot Whey gained 2.25 cents, finishing at $0.5000/lb.
• Spot Butter added another 0.25 cents today, closing at $2.3250/lb, while Spot Powder slipped 0.25 cents to settle at $1.1825/lb.
• Class IV had a quiet session with no volume traded and finished the day in the red.

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Author

John Heinberg