CORN HIGHLIGHTS: 

• The May contract was likely pressured due to traders rolling long positions to the July contract to avoid the delivery process which begins with First Notice Day on Friday.
• The lack of export activity reflects good weather for Brazilian corn production and their cheaper export values versus the US.
• Most deferred contracts posted a small hook reversal meaning prices closed higher after trading below yesterday’s low price. This might be a signal that selling interest is beginning to wane.
• The forecast looks drier but still below normal temperature for most of the Midwest implying many will not get started until the first week of May, or later.
• The USDA’s Planting Progress report from Monday indicated 14% of the crop was planted, ahead of the 5-year average of 11%. Illinois is 18% complete verses the 5 – year average of 11%. Despite less-than-ideal weather in the north, planting progress, so far, is slightly ahead of schedule.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the fifth consecutive day and were under pressure from both soybean meal and oil, but bean oil posted the biggest losses as crude fell over 1.50 a barrel.
• The US Dollar moved higher today putting pressure on most commodities including the soy complex, but the downward momentum is also coming from major selling of cash beans out of Brazil at relatively much cheaper prices.
• Brazil’s harvest is now over 95% complete with yields exceeding original estimates, and storage is becoming an issue there prompting many producers to unload on cash sales which has weakened prices and basis.
• US soybean planting is 9% complete and ahead of the 5-year average of 4% with Illinois at 15%, Iowa at only 5%, Louisiana 41%, and Mississippi at 34% complete.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Though all three wheat classes posted losses, they all finished roughly 9-10 cents above their daily lows.
• The forecast for rain in Kansas and Oklahoma offered some weakness, with general coverage of up to 1.5 inches of rain expected, while some areas could see as much as 2 inches.
• On the crop progress report, the USDA rated winter wheat 26% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. Additionally, they said that only 5% of the spring wheat crop has been planted versus 12% on average.
• The next renewal of the Black Sea grain deal is in a few short weeks, but there is still uncertainty whether Russia will renew or not.
• According to APK Inform, Ukraine’s grain production could fall to only 45.6 mmt in 23/24, versus 86 mmt prior to the war.
• The higher US Dollar Index today offered no help to the wheat market. As of this writing it is up about 0.52 at 101.87.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS: 

• May Class III futures fell another 29 cents today to $16.60, the lowest the second month contract has traded since August 2021.
• Spot cheese broker 3.625 cents today to close under $1.60/lb for the first time in 2.5 years; barrels fell 5.50 cents on 15 loads traded.
• No Class IV futures traded but the June through December contracts finished red; both spot butter and powder were unchanged on the day.
• March Cold Storage was released this afternoon, showing cheese stocks down slightly from a year ago while butter stocks were up 3% YoY.

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Author

Amanda Brill