CORN HIGHLIGHTS: 

• Corn futures reversed off early session lows, and the results of the Oklahoma Winter Wheat crop tour revealed one of the worst crops since 1955, triggering a strong short covering reaction in the wheat market, spilling over and supporting the corn market.
• The planting pace of this year’s crop is expected to be more complete across the corn belt this week as forecasts are calling for warmer and drier weather into the second week of May.
• The weekly Ethanol Production report saw mixed numbers, as weekly production was improved over last week, and ethanol stockpiles were lower than expected. The overall pace of corn usage for ethanol is trending below USDA projections at this point of the marketing year.
• Demand concerns will still be a focus with the release of weekly export sales totals on Thursday morning. Expectations are for corn sales to be from -450,000 mt to 800,000 mt for the next two marketing years. Export sales totals will be influenced by the cancellations of Chinese purchases last week.
• The strong closing price action posted a bullish reversal on the corn charts after retesting previous lows. With a market holding an oversold status, this could allow for additional price strength on technical buying and covering of short positions.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans traded lower for most of the day but ultimately ended higher along with soybean oil following the Federal Reserve announcement that cast a bearish shadow over the markets.
• The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points but hinted that they may be done with hikes for the year. The US Dollar reacted well to the news, but crude oil stayed suppressed, down 3 dollars a barrel.
• Brazil’s basis levels had fallen sharply in the past two months but recently have improved by 75 cents as harvest wraps up and farmers slow selling. This has added some support to the soy complex.
• In the US, soy planting is ahead of schedule at 20% complete with northern states showing the most sluggish pace. Temperatures in the North are forecast to warm over the next two weeks, which should speed up planting.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat market saw significant reversals today in all three US wheat futures classes with gains of 30 or more cents.
• News outlets are reporting an attempted drone attack on the Kremlin in Russia. This may have been the catalyst behind today’s rally, as war premium was added back into the market.
• Offering support to wheat price is the Oklahoma wheat tour’s projection of their crop at 54.3 mb. This would be the lowest production since 1955.
• The American weather model predicts up to seven inches of rain next week in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. The European model is somewhat in conflict, though, with a drier forecast.
• Egypt fulfilled their tender from Romania and Russia. US SRW wheat was cheaper but was also at a freight cost disadvantage. Additionally, the Russian wheat was purchased at $260 per ton, whereas Russia previously encouraged a $275 export price floor.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS: 

• Each spot dairy product on Wednesday was bid higher, with cheese leading the charge up 2.75c for the block/barrel average.
• Class IV products have posted two strong days back-to-back following Tuesday’s strong bidding in the Global Dairy Trade.
• June 2023 Class III milk was able to rally back over the $17.00 barrier, as it added 11c to $17.08. Most contracts finished the session green.
• April 2023 Class III milk settled at $18.52 while the Class IV contract settled at $17.95. April is now off the board as May moves into the front month spot.
• US corn posted a strong reversal, as the July contract finished about 19c off of this morning’s low.

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Author

Amanda Brill