CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Technical selling and long liquidation weighed on corn, with prices ending moderately to sharply lower. Favorable weather and solid planting progress kept pressure on the market as supply concerns eased.
• Corn planting is expected to reach around 40% in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Forecasts remain warm and dry across most of the Corn Belt, supporting rapid planting for the 2025/26 crop.
• Weather conditions for the Brazil corn crop have been overall very friendly, and some analyst groups have raised their production forecasts for the key second crop corn. With harvest a few weeks away, the fresh supplies will be in competition with U.S. corn bushels on the export market.
• Weekly U.S. corn export inspections remain strong. For the week ending May 1, inspections totaled 1.608 MMT (63.3 mb), near the top of expectations. Inspections are likely to stay firm until Brazil and Argentina enter the market more aggressively.
• Managed speculative funds have been pressuring the corn market as traders have cut their current net long positions. On Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, managed funds reduced their net long position to 71,329 contracts, this was down 41,479 contracts from the previous week’s report as good planting forecasts and Brazil crop expectations have triggered the selling pressure.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures closed lower in bear spreading action, with front-month contracts leading the decline and erasing Friday’s gains. Expectations remain for another strong planting pace in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Soybean meal and oil also fell, with oil under heavier pressure following declines in crude and palm oil.
• Weekly export inspections were soft but within trade estimates. For the week ending May 1, inspections totaled 11.9 million bushels, bringing 2024/25 cumulative inspections to 1.597 billion bushels — up 11% from last year. Mexico and China were the top destinations.
• Malaysian palm oil stocks likely posted their biggest monthly increase since August 2023, as production recovered from recent weather disruptions. Rising inventories have added pressure to soybean oil.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 7,135 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,202 contracts. They bought 12,488 contracts of bean oil and sold 24,716 contracts of bean meals.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower across the board, with winter wheat hit hardest. Spring wheat losses were limited as dry conditions in the Northern Plains offered support. It was a broad risk-off day for commodities, with Paris milling wheat and crude oil also sharply lower, adding pressure to U.S. wheat markets.
• Weekly wheat inspections of 11.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 727 mb, which is up 14% from last year and slightly behind the forecasted pace. Total 24/25 exports are estimated by the USDA at 820 mb, up 16% from the year prior.
• Forecasted rains in Argentina could delay corn and soybean harvests and winter wheat planting, though the moisture will aid early crop establishment during the May–July planting window.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling a record 31,486 contracts of Chicago wheat, pushing their net short to 121,415 — the largest since June 2023. Across all three U.S. wheat classes, managed money is now net short a record 207,798 contracts.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• June Class III futures ripped 48 cents higher to close at $18.34. The remaining 2025 contracts all held small to moderate gains.
• Spot cheese kept its winning streak going with a gain of 2.50 cents today to push to $1.7850/lb. Whey was unchanged.
• May and June Class IV futures were even with Friday’s close while the rest of the 2025 contracts were unchanged or lower.
• Spot butter was 0.75 cents higher while powder gave back a half cent.
• Tomorrow will give the market a Global Dairy Trade Auction, March Dairy Exports, and March Dairy Products Production.

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Author

John Heinberg