CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures firmed into the weekend as broader buying interest across the grain markets, along with short covering and technical buying, supported prices. July corn gained 3 ¾ cents to 471 ¼, while December futures added 4 cents to 493 ½. For the week, July corn futures traded lower, losing 9 ½ cents on the week, for its first lower week after 3 weeks.
• Cool but mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt should support planting progress. The market will closely watch Monday’s Crop Progress report after last week’s corn planting pace reached 38% complete.
• Argentina corn harvest moved to 38% complete this week, up 3% over last week. Corn harvest this season is running 4% ahead of last year as Argentina is harvesting a record crop estimated up to 61 MMT.
• USDA will release the May WASDE report on Tuesday, May 12, providing the first official outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year. Using March Prospective Plantings acreage of 95.3 million and a trendline yield of 183 bpa, early estimates place ending stocks near 1.93 billion bushels.
• Ongoing headlines surrounding the U.S.–Iran conflict continue to influence grain price action. With no confirmed peace agreement in place, markets appeared to add some geopolitical risk premium heading into the weekend.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher on optimism over a potential trad agreement between President Trump and China’s Xi in their meeting next week. July soybeans gained 15-3/4 cents to 1208 while November gained 16 cents to 1189-1/2. July soybean meal gained $0.80 to $319.70 and July soybean oil gained 0.17 cents to 74.32 cents.
• While speculative buying has increased on hopes for a trade breakthrough, China may be less motivated to negotiate aggressively as disruptions tied to the Iran conflict continue to impact its crude oil imports and energy costs. The meeting could improve prospects for future U.S. soybean exports, though a finalized agreement next week remains unlikely.
• Ahead of next week’s USDA WASDE report, trade estimates peg U.S. soybean production at 4.445 billion bushels, up from 4.262 billion last season, with yields expected unchanged at 53.0 bpa. U.S. ending stocks are projected near 345 million bushels, while global ending stocks are expected to edge slightly higher to 125.31 MMT.
• For the week, July soybeans gained 4-3/4 cents while November gained 6-3/4 cents. July soybean meal gained just $0.40 and July soybean oil lost 0.84 cents but made new contract highs this week. More volatility should be expected next week with the WASDE report and Trump Xi meeting.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat began to recover today alongside the rest of the grain complex. Energy prices saw a slight rebound following an exchange of gunfire yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz, which put a bit of war premium back into the market. Additionally, today’s jobs report indicated the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, well above expectations for an increase of 55,000. This may have reduced concerns about recession, contributing to the price recovery. In the July contract, Chicago gained 6-3/4 cents to 619, Kansas City climbed 8-1/2 cents to 675-3/4, and MIAX posted a 4-3/4 cent increase to 678-1/2.
• USDA estimates 70% of U.S. winter wheat acres were experiencing drought conditions as of May 5, up from 69% the previous week and sharply above 22% a year ago. Spring wheat drought exposure held steady at 18% for the fifth straight week, well below last year’s 37%.
• IKAR is reported to have reduced their estimate of Russian 25/26 wheat exports by 1.5 mmt, to 44.5 mmt. This is now in line with the USDA’s projection. A strong Ruble, low export prices, rising freight costs, and reduced global demand are all cited as reasons for the drop.
• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization now projects global wheat production to decline 2% in 2026 to 817 MMT. While still above the five-year average, rising input costs, tighter producer margins, and drought concerns continue to pressure outlooks.
• Western Australia is expected to shift quite a bit of wheat planting to canola. In fact, one survey suggests canola planted area for the 26/27 season will be a record at 2.3 million hectares. This would compare with 1.9 million hectares in 25/26. Meanwhile, the survey projected Western Australia’s wheat plantings at 3.7 million hectares, compared to 4.4 million last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were seen falling for a second straight day as cheese pulled back slightly. June futures lost 14 cents to close at $17.33.
• Spot cheese lost 0.375 cents to close at $1.61125/lb while whey added half a cent to close at $0.70/lb.
• Class IV futures closed lower going into the weekend as powder dipped lower. June futures closed 21 cents lower to $22.29. 
• Spot butter improved 3.50 cents to $1.6650/lb while powder lost just 0.50 cents to close at $2.29/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill