CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the week higher, building on positive momentum and firmer spread action as the market corrected from oversold conditions ahead of Monday’s WASDE release.
• Demand was supportive again Friday, with another 288,000 metric tons sold to Mexico — bringing the two-day total to over 600,000 mt, showing lower prices have sparked renewed interest in U.S. corn.
• Warmer weather is forecast across the U.S. into late May, which should aid planting progress and support early crop development.
• The USDA is expected to raise old crop export estimates in Monday’s report, likely trimming 2024/25 ending stocks. However, new crop ending stocks are projected to climb significantly, potentially exceeding 2 billion bushels due to a much higher U.S. average figure. These estimates would suggest that a sustained rally would require a major weather-related disruption.
• In Argentina, the corn harvest is 35% complete, advancing just 4% on the week, according to BAGE.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher for a second day but remained rangebound between $10.35 and $10.65. Traders are eyeing Friday’s Trump-Xi meeting, where a potential trade deal could support the market. Soybean meal ended lower, while soybean oil gained alongside crude.
• In South America, weather is expected to remain friendly for the continuation of harvest, which is expected to be a record, and in the U.S., warmer weather should boost planting pace and emergence into the rest of the month.
• On Monday, the WASDE report will be released, and trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion
• For the week, July soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents while November was completely unchanged at $10.30-1/2. July soybean meal lost $2.80 to finish at $294.10, and July soybean oil lost 0.86 cents to 48.57 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures ended lower Friday, unable to follow corn and soybeans higher. Volatility may increase next week with the USDA’s WASDE report and U.S.-China trade talks in focus. Lack of progress could pressure markets, while signs of a deal may boost grain prices.
• Monday’s WASDE (11 AM CT) is expected to show U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks near 845 mb, down slightly from April, and initial 2025/26 stocks projected at 848 mb. Global carryout is expected to remain steady around 260.7 mmt for 2024/25, with 2025/26 pegged at 259.8 mmt.
• U.S. 2025/26 wheat production is forecast at 1.896 bb, down from 1.971 bb last season. Winter wheat is seen at 1.333 bb. Total wheat acreage remains historically low at 45.4 million acres, per March USDA data.
• Geopolitical headlines added intrigue, with reports the U.S. and EU may propose a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
• Wheat seedings in western Australia are expected to be smaller than initially thought, due to unfavorable conditions. It has been persistently dry – according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, farmers will plant 4.07 million hectares of wheat for the 25/26 season, which compares to the April estimate of 4.19 million hectares.
• According to FranceAgriMer, an estimated 74% of the French soft wheat crop is rated in good or very good condition as of May 5. This was steady with the week prior. Additionally, temperatures are expected to increase this weekend with rains in the forecast for western and southwestern regions.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures pulled back for a second straight day. The June contract saw the biggest loss on the day, losing 44 cents to close at $18.31.
• Spot cheese posted its first daily loss of the week today, closing 1.75 cents lower to $1.79375/lb. Whey was unchanged at $0.5425/lb.
• Class IV futures followed the Class III market lower going into the weekend. The August contract fell by 22 cents to close at $18.63/lb.
• Spot butter gained 0.75 cents on the day to close at $2.33/lb, while powder lost 0.75 cents to close out the week at $1.2075/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill