CORN HIGHLIGHT

• Corn prices saw some price recovery off overnight lows as a strong wheat market helped trigger some light short covering in the corn market.
• The USDA weekly corn export inspections were improved over last week with 1.174 MMT (46.2 mb) being inspected for shipment last week. Even with the lowered USDA projection, this total is still behind the recommended USDA pace and 33% behind last year. Demand remains a concern and limiting factor.
• The Mississippi River lock and dam system is back in operation after being closed the past couple weeks for flooding concerns, improved river movement could help front end demand and support a firm cash market.
• The USDA weekly Crop Progress numbers are expected to see corn planting at 68% complete, up from 49% last week and still ahead of the 5-year average.
• The National Corn Index, which reflects cash markets across the corn belt, is trading at $6.21 (+.034) and a premium to July futures, reflecting a still relatively tight domestic supply of corn and firm cash market tone.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher today along with soybean oil, supported in part by carryover strength from the corn market and a higher crude oil market.
• In soybean meal, the deferred contracts closed higher. While the Jul and Aug contracts posted bearish reversals, which could lead to additional profit taking on any further weakness.
• The USDA reported a private export sale of 100,000 tonnes of US soybean meal for delivery to Poland for the 22/23 marketing year.
• April NOPA soybean crush was pegged at 173.232 million bushels which was down from 185.81 mb in March, but still a record for April. Trade was expecting173 mb.
• Weekly soybean inspections for the week ending Thursday May 11 were poor at 5.4 mb which puts total inspections for 22/23 at 1,764 mb which is down 1% from the previous year.
• In Brazil, harvest has wrapped up, but producers are unwilling to sell at current spot prices. Instead of making cash sales, some producers are opting to barter their soybeans in exchange for inputs and fertilizer.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite negotiations, there currently has been no resolution to the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is set to expire in a few days on May 18^th.
• The USDA is projecting Kansas winter wheat production at 191.4 mb, the lowest number in 50 years.
• Paris milling wheat traded higher today, adding further support to all three classes of US wheat futures.
• Wheat inspections of 5.4 mb bring total 22/23 wheat inspections to 688 mb. The USDA is still estimating 775mb of wheat exports.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The block/barrel average fell another 3.75 cents today to push under $1.50/lb, just barely above the lowest spot cheese has traded since COVID hit.
• All Class III futures were down today as well with the June contract closing at $16.41, the lowest close for the second month since August 2021.
• The Class IV market was mixed but both the July and August contracts closed 3 cents higher on decent volume.
• Spot butter had a strong start to the week with a close at $2.4375/lb, a nice reaction after dropping 4.50 cents last week.
• The second of two May Global Dairy Trade Auctions will take place tomorrow followed by April Milk Production on Friday.

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Author

Brandon Doherty