TFM Daily Market Summary 05-17-2024


  • It was a difficult end of the week in the corn market as prices stay under selling pressure with a near-term weather forecast and a technical breakdown in the wheat futures. July corn was 17 ¼ cents lower on the week and 23 cents off this week’s high.
  • With the weak price action, corn futures posted bearish key reversals on the weekly charts, which could indicate a longer-term downward trend is forming. The market will be watching for follow-through selling pressure next week.
  • Near-term weather forecasts reflect a window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 3-4 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and warm temperatures, which could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month. A focus will be the planting pace in Iowa and Illinois, which were 13% and 14% respectively behind the 5-year average on the last crop progress report.
  • The 5-year planting pace for next Monday’s crop progress report is near 75% complete. If the current planting pace can be near that level on Monday afternoon, the market will be less concerned and additional weather premium that is in the corn market may be removed, pressuring prices.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of mixed trade that saw prices slide during midday before recovering. Soybean meal was mixed with the front months ending higher but deferred months lower. Soybean oil closed higher for the third consecutive day despite the tariff announcement on Tuesday that temporarily drove prices lower.
  • For the week, July soybeans gained 9 cents to 1228, and November soybeans lost 2 ½ cents to close at 1203 ¼. July soybean meal lost $3.10 finishing at $368.80 and July soybean oil gained 0.83 cents at 45.27 cents. Overall, delayed planting due to rains were supportive, but export sales and the NOPA crush numbers were disappointing.
  • In Brazil, the flooded state of Rio Grande do Sul has reportedly harvested 85% of its planted soybean area which is up from 78% last week. Progress remains slow as some areas are still flooded, and there are reports that some food silos have been heavily damaged as well due to the water.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report for soybeans were poor at 9.8 mb in sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. This was down 38% from last week and down 31% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 16.3 mb were above the 12.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels. Although, total sales commitments are down 16% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Egypt, China, and Indonesia.


  • Wheat posted double digit losses in both Chicago and Kansas City contracts, with Minneapolis not far behind. This is the fourth consecutive lower close for July Chicago futures, which are still well above 620 ½ support at the 200-day moving average.
  • The Kansas wheat crop tour concluded yesterday, with the best estimates in three years. They projected the crop at 290.4 mb with an average yield of 46.5 bpa, which was significantly above the five year average of 42.4 bpa. However, there are still trouble spots and there is still time for dryness to set in that may reduce production.
  • Russia has reduced its wheat export tax to 3,110 Rubles per mt, marking a 2% decrease. Additionally, they reported a loss of about 1% of their planted crop area due to frost, totaling approximately 830,000 hectares. Furthermore, Russian wheat export values have risen to $242 per mt FOB, which is a $44 increase from the low but still remains approximately $20 below French offers.
  • Ukraine’s wheat exports since July of last year have reached 16.6 mmt, representing a 10% increase year over year. The USDA estimates Ukraine’s wheat exports for the marketing year at 17.5 mmt. Their total grain exports have reached 44.2 mmt, up 0.5% year on year. In May alone, their grain shipments reached 2.86 mmt, marking a 38% increase year on year.
  • According to their national statistics office, Germany’s 2024 winter wheat planted area fell 8.3% year over year, due to heavy rains and flooding that impacted arable land during the fall and winter. Total winter wheat plantings are estimated at 2.6 million hectares.


  • Class III was mostly in the green with only the May and October contracts posting small losses on the day. June futures moved 34 cents higher heading into the weekend to close at $21.46/cwt.
  • Spot cheese helped to ignite Class III futures trading another 2.3750 cents higher to $2.03375/lb. Spot whey ended the week by going unchanged at $0.4150/lb.
  • Class IV saw all 2024 futures contracts trade in the green to push the 2024 Class IV average 11 cents higher to $20.98/cwt.
  • Spot butter continued its uptrend gaining an additional 1.50 cents Friday for a total of an 8-cent gain for the week. Powder went unchanged today staying at $1.1650/lb.


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Brandon Doherty

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