TFM Daily Market Summary 05-18-2023


  • The corn market finished mixed on Thursday as weak export demand and competition from cheaper South American corn limited gains on the front end of the market.
  • The USDA released weekly export data this morning and corn sales continue to disappoint. For the week of May 11, the 22/23 crop year saw net cancellations of 13.3 mb, a market year low, and new crop sales were light at 2.9 mb. These totals are well below sales needed to reach USDA targets.
  • The large second crop Brazil corn is making good progress with limited concerns as harvest is getting closer. The expected record crops have Brazil offering corn for export at a discount to US prices.
  • Overall, US weather looks to stay favorable as corn planting is hitting the home stretch. The market will be keeping a close eye on the northern Plains and the slow progress in that region with prevent plant dates starting as early as May 25.
  • A strong US Dollar and aggressive selling in the wheat market limited the upside potential in the corn market as US wheat prices are still expensive compared to the global wheat market.


  • Soybeans traded either side of unchanged today but ultimately closed lower, led down by soybean meal. Soybean oil traded higher despite a drop in crude oil.
  • Export sales were poor last week with the USDA reporting an increase of just 0.6 mb of soybeans for 22/23, far below the average trade guess. Export sales for 23/24 were 24.4 mb, while export shipments were 6.9 mb and below the 12.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.
  • With Brazil’s harvest complete and estimated at 5.7 billion bushels, premiums there are rallying on an FOB basis, from close to 200 under Chicago futures to 57 under yesterday.
  • Planting pace has accelerated everywhere but North Dakota and Minnesota. And, while showers are forecast across the central and southern Plains, the forecasts into June look mostly dry.


  • Net cancellations of 1.5 mb of 22/23 wheat export sales did not offer any support to the market today. However, an increase of 12.4 mb for 23/24, while not stellar, does look better.
  • Day 2 of the HRW crop tour found a yield of 27.5 bpa. Last year at this time it was 37 bpa.
  • Kansas City contracts finished almost 30 cents lower, despite the friendly Kansas wheat tour yield projection coming in 13 million bushels below current USDA projections. Good rains have recently fallen in Kansas, many feel these rains were too little too late to help the maturing wheat crop.
  • The US Dollar Index again made a new near term high today, offering weakness to wheat futures.


  • Second month Class III futures traded under $16.00 for the first time in nearly two years with June futures dropping 40 cents to $15.92.
  • The block/barrel average was down 2.6250 cents to a new two-year low, continuing to find selling pressure on decent volume.
  • Class IV contracts in the second half of the year were lower as well with the July contract falling 29 cents to push beneath June futures.
  • In today’s spot trade, butter was unchanged but powder is entering Friday down on the week, hanging just above its lowest level since 2021.
  • The tug-of-war between higher butter and lower powder trade is similar to the situation Class IV milk was in around this time a year ago, with a break lower eventually winning out.

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Amanda Brill

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