CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Optimism regarding Chinese export business helped push corn prices higher to start the week. July corn finished 21 ¼ cents higher to 477, December corn added 17 cents to 498.
• In a White House fact sheet released over the weekend, the Trump administration announced that China would purchase $17 billion of U.S. agricultural products in addition to the previously proposed 25 mmt of soybeans for the marketing year. While the announcement lacked detail regarding which commodities would be purchased, it was viewed as supportive and triggered a broad risk-on rally across the grain markets.
• Weekly corn export inspections can in within market expectations at 1.379 MMT (54.3 mb) for the week ending May 14. Total export inspections for the marketing year are up 29% over last year, and the USDA forecasted a 16% YOY rise.
• Parts of the corn belt received beneficial rain over the weekend, especially in portions of the Western Corn Belt.  More rainfall is needed, but weather forecasts are looking at a wetter pattern into the end of the month.
• The USDA Crop Progress Report is expected to show corn planting near 75% complete as of May 17 on Monday’s Planting Progress report. Overall weather was favorable for continued planting progress across the corn belt.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following news that China would purchase 17 billion dollars’ worth of US agricultural products this year. July soybeans gained 36 cents to $12.13 while November gained 30-1/4 cents to $12.01. July soybean meal gained $0.20 to $334.50 and July soybean oil gained 1.75 cents to 75.63 cents. This followed the rise in crude oil by $3.28 to $108.70 a barrel.
• Today’s export inspections report was soft for soybeans but within analyst expectations at 17.8 million bushels for the week ending May 14. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 1.267 billion bushels, which is down 22% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating that this year’s total inspections will be down 19% from the prior year.
• The NOPA crush report for April came in below expectations at 211.856 million bushels which was down by 6.3% from the 226.161 million bushels crushed in March but was still up 11.4% from April last year. The decline in crush was likely due to seasonal maintenance on many plants.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as net sellers of soybeans as of May 12. They sold 6,802 contracts which reduced their net long position to 214,815 contracts which is not far from their record long position. They sold 6,855 contracts of soybean oil leaving them long 162,287 contracts and bought 5,145 contracts of bean meal leaving them long 116,082 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat, along with the rest of the grain complex, rebounded sharply today after traders received a bit more clarity regarding Chinese purchases of US ag goods. China will reportedly buy $17 billion annually over the next three years, on top of the 25 mmt of soybean purchases already agreed to. What remains unclear is the breakdown of these additional ag goods. In the July contract, Chicago rose 28-3/4 cents to 664-1/2, Kansas City was up 15-3/4 cents at 703-3/4, and MIAX climbed 18 cents to 703-1/4.
• Weekly wheat export inspections came in at 8.2 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 849 mb, up 11% from last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total exports for 25/26 are forecasted at 910 mb, up 10% from the year prior.
• There is talk that some US importers have purchased Polish wheat, amounting between 120-350,000 mt. This is the result of US wheat pricing itself out of the market on the recent rally. Shipment will reportedly take place this summer. Polish wheat is said to be $50-$60/mt cheaper than SRW wheat at the US Gulf.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values increased by $1 last week to $240/mt. IKAR also increased their estimate of Russia’s May wheat exports to 3.0 mmt. Additionally, IKAR has said that Russia’s spring wheat planted area for 26/27 may fall 5% to 10.5 million hectares – this is the lowest in about 20 years, if realized. Heavy rains and cold weather resulted in a slow start to planting and are cited as reasons for the decline.
• Chinese customs data indicates that their imports of wheat and wheat flour in the month of April totaled 640,000 mt, which is a decline of 14.8% year over year. However, year-to-date imports are said to be up 130.2% year over year at 2.43 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III contracts were mostly lower once again with second month June settling down 8 cents at $16.94.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.5550/lb while whey was up a half cent to $0.69/lb. Both saw no loads trade.
• Class IV futures were either unchanged or red today. June was even on the day with the July contract losing 11 cents from Friday.
• Spot butter was even with Friday’s settlement with 26 loads traded. Spot powder lost a quarter cent.

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Author

Amanda Brill