CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Buyers stepped into the corn market, lifting prices off early session lows as value buying and continued strong demand story brought support to the corn market, erasing most of Friday’s losses.
• USDA’s weekly export inspections showed 1.719 MMT (67.7 mb) of corn shipped for the week ending May 12 — near the top of analyst expectations. Total shipments are now 29% ahead of last year and tracking roughly 150 mb above the pace needed to hit USDA’s 2024–25 export forecast.
• Managed money has moved into a short position in the corn market as favorable weather, and prospects on a large Brazil corn crop have pressured the market. In last week’s commitment of traders’ report, funds were net sellers of nearly 100,000 corn contracts and held a net short position of 84,976 corn contracts. With additional selling pressure into the end of the week, the estimate reflects that the funds are approximately net short 100,000 contracts going into today’s session.
• Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to show corn planting nearing 80% complete. Illinois — a key producer — lagged 6% behind the five-year average last week. Continued delays there could spark yield concerns and weigh on national production expectations.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were higher to end the day in relatively quiet trade that saw new crop contracts posting the larger gains. Futures once again found support at the 100 and 200-day moving averages which have converged and are providing support. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil led soybeans higher.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 145,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during marketing year 2024/2025. Export sales have been slow overall for soybeans, but India and other countries are reportedly looking to discuss trade deals with the U.S.which could boost demand.
• Today’s export inspections were below analyst expectations for soybeans with inspections totaling 8.0 million bushels for the week ending May 15. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.622 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total exports for 24/25 up 8% from the previous year.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of May 13 by 16,537 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,407 contracts. They were buyers of bean oil by 10,694 contracts and buyers of meal by 712 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• U.S. wheat futures closed higher across all classes Monday, led by double-digit gains in Minneapolis spring wheat. Reports of frost in the Northern Plains over the weekend, with more cold in the forecast, helped support spring wheat. A weaker U.S. dollar—pressured by Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating—also boosted commodity prices.
• Weekly wheat inspections at 15.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 761 mb, which is up 16% from last year. Inspections are running slightly ahead of the USDA’s estimates – they are projecting 24/25 exports at 800 mb, up 13% from last year.
• According to their customs data, China’s wheat imports have fallen 61.2% year over year, to 760,000 mt. Corn and soybean imports are also down sharply. However, wheat growing regions in central China are under stress due to dry conditions. This could mean they will need to increase their wheat imports down the road, which would be bullish.
• LSEG ag research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 794.99 mmt, which would be down 0.3% from last season if realized. Despite the expectation for declines to the wheat crop in the U.S., Black Sea region, Australia, and Kazakhstan, this may be largely offset by gains in India, Canada, and Europe. Even China is expected by LSEG to have a bigger crop, in spite of current weather issues.
• Over the weekend, severe flooding in Argentina caused evacuations in the northern part of the Buenos Aires province. Rainfall totals were reported between 6-10 inches or more in a very short period of time. This flooding may cause delays to soybean harvest, as well as planting of their wheat crop.
• The German national statistics agency has projected that their nation’s winter wheat planted area is up 12.2% from a year ago, to 2.78 million hectares. This is down 0.1% from their December estimate. Germany is the second biggest wheat producer in the EU, with France being number one.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures took a step back Monday as a total of 15 spot cheese loads traded hands and the block/barrel average fell 2.875c as a result.
• After peaking at $19.80 on Friday, June Class III finished today down at $19.02.
• Each Class III contract from June through October was able to close over the $19.00 threshold despite the selling pressure.
• The spot butter market was unchanged, closing again at $2.3425/lb. Butter has been very quiet the past few weeks.
• This should be a heavy news week with a Global Dairy Trade Tuesday, a milk production report Wednesday, and cold storage on Friday.

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Author

Amanda Brill