CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures traded choppy Tuesday as the strong planting pace and increased producer selling limited upside momentum, with prices consolidating near the upper end of Monday’s trading range. July corn finished 1 3.4 cents lower to 475 1/4 and December slipped ¼ cents to 497 3/4.
• Corn planting progress continues to advance at a strong pace. Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed the U.S. corn crop at 76% planted, up 19 percentage points from the previous week and 6 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.
• Old-crop corn futures faced pressure Tuesday amid strong farmer selling out of Argentina. Producers there are in the middle of a record corn harvest and actively hedging newly harvested supplies.
• Export sales and inspections have slipped in recent reports.  While export demand is very strong, the increased competition from Argentina and Brazil bushels over the next couple of months may limit price moves.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans finished the day mixed, with bear spreading activity pressuring nearby contracts while deferred months traded higher. July soybeans lost 3-1/2 cents to $12.09-1/2 while November gained 2 cents to $12.03. July soybean meal lost $2.20 to $332.30 and July soybean oil lost 0.19 cents to 75.44 cents as crude oil slipped by 81 cents.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its weekly Crop Progress Report. Soybeans are 67% planted as of May 17, which compares to 49% a week ago and is ahead of last year’s pace of 63% at this time. Progress is still well above the 5-year average of 53% at this time. 32% of the crop is now emerged which is also ahead of the 5-year average.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections soft at 484k tons which compared to 663k tons last week and 225k tons a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to China with 203k tons followed by Mexico and Egypt.
• The NOPA crush report for April came in below expectations at 211.856 million bushels which was down by 6.3% from the 226.161 million bushels crushed in March but was still up 11.4% from April last year. The decline in crush was likely due to seasonal maintenance on many plants.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures had a mixed close across the three classes. It appears that the grain markets took a breather after the past few days of volatility, without much in the way of fresh news to drive the market today. In July contracts, Chicago gained 2-3/4 cents to 667-1/4, Kansas City was unchanged at 703-3/4, and MIAX lost 6-3/4 cents to 696-1/2.
• According to the USDA’s crop progress report, US winter wheat conditions slipped 1% to 27% good to excellent (the lowest for that category since 1989). Meanwhile, the poor to very poor category increased 3% to 43%. An estimated 71% of the crop is headed, which is well above last year’s 62% and the 58% average. The spring wheat crop is said to be 73% planted, versus 80% a year ago and 66% average; 39% of that crop has emerged.
• Crude oil prices dropped today after President Trump cancelled a planned attack on Iran late yesterday. Three Middle Eastern leaders asked him to hold off. This may have put some pressure back on grain futures today, limiting any significant rally potential.
• According to their Federal Statistical Office, Germany’s winter wheat planted area is up 1.5% year over year at 2.9 million hectares.
• CONAB has indicated that as of May 8, approximately 17.5% of Brazil’s wheat area has been planted. CONAB also revised their estimate of Brazil’s 2026 wheat production to 6.38 mmt – if realized, this would be down 18.9% from 2025. This is largely due to a smaller planted area, projected at 2.14 million hectares, down 12.5% from last season. Fo reference, the USDA is estimating Brazil’s planted wheat area at 2.3 million hectares.
• Australian farmers are likely to reduce wheat plantings due to rising input costs and expectations for dry weather. The Iran conflict has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices, and El Nino could bring drought. By some estimates, Australia’s wheat harvest could fall by 40%, with exports declining by as much as 10 mmt. Even conservative estimates still suggest the crop declining by at least 16%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese got hammered for the second day in a row. Blocks fell 2.25c to $1.5325/lb while barrels fell 4c to just $1.5150/lb.
• Spot butter lost 4c and closed down to $1.60/lb. The cheese and butter markets are really struggling.
• Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade auction saw the GDT Price Index rise 0.60%, supported by powder. GDT cheese hit a new low for the year.
• Most nearby Class III and IV futures were down double digits on pretty heavy volume.
• Spot powder fell 1.50c and closed back down to $2.2550/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty