CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures posted gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in the wheat market and growing concerns about late-season planting delays. July corn has now traded higher in four of the past five sessions and is nearly 20 cents above recent lows.
• Technical momentum is building as July futures closed above the key $4.50 level on Tuesday, while December corn pushed through its 200-day moving average. These bullish signals could trigger additional short covering.
• USDA estimated corn planting at 78% complete, up 16% from last week. This was slightly below expectations, but 15% higher than last year and 5% above the 5-year average. Most states are ahead of schedule compared to the 5-year average, but the states of Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky are behind pace due to wet weather in those states.
• Rain covered much of the Corn Belt on Tuesday, with more expected throughout the week. While moisture is welcomed in the western Corn Belt, the eastern region remains too wet. With the calendar moving past optimal planting windows, the market is turning its attention to the final 20% of acres.
• Attention now shifts to summer weather, as NOAA’s long-range forecasts call for a drier pattern and above-average temperatures across much of the Corn Belt — especially in the west, where dryness is already a concern.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of mixed trade. July futures have been bouncing higher off support at the 100 and 200-day moving averages but have not been able to rally following last week’s sell-off. While planting pace has been quick, recent rains may slow progress. Both soybean meal and oil were higher to end the day.
• Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 66%, slightly above trade expectations. This compares to 48% last week and a 5-year average of 53%. Emergence was reported at 34%, ahead of last week’s 17% and the average of 23% for this time of year.
• While planting progress remains strong overall, recent widespread rains across the Corn Belt could slow fieldwork. Looking ahead, the 7–14-day forecast shows below-normal precipitation across much of the Corn Belt west of Ohio, raising concerns about early-season dryness.
• In Argentina, there was severe flooding over the weekend with rainfall totaling 6 to 10 inches in some areas north of Buenos Aires. The 24/25 bean crop was estimated at 50 mmt previously, but the catastrophic flooding will likely bring that number lower.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed sharply higher Tuesday following a decline in U.S. winter wheat crop conditions in the latest USDA report. Additional heavy rainfall across parts of the already-saturated Southern Midwest raised further concerns about crop quality and may have triggered short covering. A strong rally in Paris milling wheat also supported U.S. prices, with the September Matif contract closing at its highest level in more than two weeks.
• Winter wheat conditions dropped 2 points to 52% good to excellent, falling short of market expectations for steady ratings. Roughly 64% of the crop is now headed, ahead of the 5-year average of 58% but behind last year’s 67%. For spring wheat, planting progress reached 82%, well ahead of the 5-year average of 65% and last year’s 76%. Emergence stands at 45%, also ahead of normal.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values for June delivery remained unchanged last week at $247 per mt on FOB basis. Both IKAR and SovEcon are similar in their estimates of Russia’s May wheat exports, with the former anticipating between 1.8-2.0 mmt and the latter sitting at 1.8 mmt.
• The USDA estimates that Brazil’s wheat planted area for 25/26 may be down 8.5% to 2.8 million hectares, when compared with the season prior. However, production is expected to be up 1.4% to 8 mmt, while their consumption is forecast to remain steady at 12.1 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The Global Dairy Trade Index fell 0.9% today, but GDT cheese was 9.2% lower from the May 6th auction.
• Class III action was mixed but futures came well off their morning lows which could bode well for tomorrow’s trade.
• Spot cheese lost less than a penny while spot whey fell 1.50 cents on top of yesterday’s penny gain, closing at $0.5250/lb.
• Class IV futures saw small movement today on unchanged butter and a half-cent loss in powder.

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Author

Brandon Doherty