The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, May 25, in Observance of Memorial Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite a strong week of export sales, corn futures failed to hold positive gains, as long liquidation appeared to remain in control of the market. July corn lost 3 ½ cents to 462 ¼, and December closed 4 ¼ cents lower to 485.
• Weekly export sales were well above expectations in the USDA export sales report. For the week ending May 14, New sales total 2.125 MMT (87.3 mb) for 2025-26 and 281,000 MT (11.1 mb) for new crop. Export sales are trending 26% ahead of last year.
• National weather service 8-14 day forecasts are calling for the majority of the corn belt to be warmer and wetter than normal. The corn is likely shifting its focus to weather with 75% complete, and current forecasts are friendly for crop development.
• Export demand may remain challenged as Argentina harvests a record corn crop and Brazil’s harvest approaches. Increased South American supplies could create additional competition for U.S. exports in the months ahead. Currently, Exports out of the PNW are still a good value on the global export market.
• Managed hedge funds could be exiting Agriculture positions as the anti-inflation pay may be leaving the market as crude oil prices have softened. On last week’s Commitment of Traders report, funds exited approximately $10 billion dollar in ac positions after the market reached a total length of $36.5 billion. The record length was set in 2022 at $40.1 billion.
•  

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower along with both soy products in a general risk-off day for grains that may be connected to the potential cancellation of a Pentagon official’s visit to Beijing. July soybeans lost 5-1/2 cents to $11.94-1/4 while November soybeans lost 6-3/4 cents to $11.86-3/4. July soybean meal lost $2.50 to $328.40 and July soybean oil lost 0.79 cents to 73.87 cents.
• Today’s export sales report was soft for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 12.9 million bushels of soybean sales for 25/26 and 6.3 mb for 26/27. This was up from the previous week and up 62% from the previous 4-week average. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Egypt, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 19.4 mb were above the 16.4 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
• Brazil’s soybean production is projected to reach 215 mmt within five years as acreage expansion and improving yields continue driving growth. Rising domestic biofuel demand is expected to support annual production growth of roughly 3% through 2031.
• Brazil’s Vegetable Oils Industry Association has increased the country’s projected soybean crushing estimate to 62.5 mmt in 2026 which would be an all-time record high. This would compare to the 58.7 mmt crushed last year and up from the previous guess of 62.2 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Both winter wheat contracts posted double-digit losses today, while spring wheat fared slightly better. Crude oil, which was initially higher, turned negative during the session and added pressure to the grain complex. U.S. wheat continues to struggle competitively on the export front, while drought-relieving rains in the extended forecast were also viewed as negative factors for prices. In the July contract, Chicago lost 13 cents to 647-1/2, Kansas City dropped 11-3/4 cents to 687, and MIAX fell 4-1/4 cents to 690-1/4.
• The USDA reported an increase of 6.1 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and an increase of 4.8 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 8.5 mb, which falls under the 22.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their 910 mb export goal. However, total 25/26 export commitments stand at 921 mb, up 17% from last year.
• The Illinois Wheat Association’s crop tour found a day 1 average yield of 102.8 bpa for the state, down from their estimate last year at 106 bpa. However, the USDA remains well below these figures, with 2026 IL wheat yields forecasted at 84 bpa – for reference, last year’s crop was a record 88 bpa.
• The International Grains Council has reduced their estimate of 26/27 world wheat production forecast by 1 mmt to 820 mmt. This is just above the USDA’s figure of 819 mmt.
• According to Rusagrotrans, Russian wheat exports in the month of May are expected to reach 2.9 mmt, which would be a year-on-year increase of about 38%. So far, through May 18, shipments stand at almost 1.65 mmt.
• LSEG commodities research has kept their estimate of Canadian 26/27 wheat production unchanged from their last update, at 35.8 mmt. Additionally, they are forecasting planted area at 10.80 million hectares, down just 0.2 million from the official Stats Canada figure.
• LSEG also updated estimates of EU, Russian, Ukrainian, Chinese, and Argentine wheat production for the 26/27 season. Russia, Ukraine, China, and Argentina forecasts were unchanged at 85.5 mmt, 22.8 mmt, 140.95 mmt, and 20.2 mmt respectively. However, output in the EU (including the UK) is now projected at 149.3 mmt, up 0.9% from the last update. This is said to be due to an improved soft wheat outlook and a slightly larger planted area in the UK.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot powder remained under pressure today, declining 11.75 cents to close at $2.0925/lb. Spot butter also weakened, falling 2.5 cents to settle at $1.5250/lb.
• Class IV milk closed sharply lower, with the June contract falling 39 cents to settle at $21.50.
• Spot cheese moved lower, losing 3.25 cents to close at $1.5100/lb. Spot whey was the lone spot market to post a gain, adding 0.50 cents to settle at $0.6875/lb.
• Class III milk closed lower across all contracts, with the June contract down 12 cents to settle at $16.60.

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill