- Despite lacking overall bullish news, the corn market rallied on short covering. With the corn market being oversold, technical buying pushed prices back higher.
- Weekly export inspections were within expectations on Monday at 52.1 mb of corn inspected for export last week. China took shipments on 12.4 mb of that total. Even with this week’s totals, the current inspection pace is approximately 100 mb behind the pace needed to reach the USDA export target.
- Corn market bulls are watching weather forecasts, which show above-average temperatures and below-average moisture across the corn belt going into early June. While the conditions should allow crop progress to continue, the dry pattern building across the heart of the corn belt may trigger some additional short covering and add potential weather premium in an oversold market.
- Weekly crop progress numbers will be released on Monday afternoon. The market is anticipating corn planting to be 82% complete as of May 21, up from 65% last week. Close attention will be on the northern Plain’s progress with the first prevent planting date around the corner on May 25 for areas of the northern states.
- The overall tone for cash basis remains soft, as producers have been moving more supplies, and exporters are concerned about demand for those supplies, which is limiting basis potential.
- Soybeans closed sharply higher and took back the losses from Friday and then some. A move higher in soybean oil brought the soy complex higher despite a decline in palm oil today.
- Bullish news came from a sale to the Philippines of 225,000 metric tons of soy cake and meal, but export inspections for last week were poor as expected.
- Soybean inspections totaled 5.7 mb for the week ending Thursday, May 18, and total inspections are now at 1,771 mb for 22/23, down 2% vs the previous year.
- Planting progress is expected to move along swiftly as weather forecasts improve, and the weekly crop progress report is expected to show planting and emergence well ahead of the 5-year average.
- Overall, there hasn’t been much positive fundamental news to explain today’s rally, so it was likely technical due to being oversold. Support for the July contract is near the 13-dollar mark.
- The USDA reported wheat export inspections of 15 mb, bringing the total 22/23 inspections to 703 mb, they also estimated 775 mb of US wheat exports.
- There have been reports that Ukraine claims Russian inspections are delaying vessels bound for the port of Pivdennyi, despite the extension of the Black Sea export corridor deal.
- Spread traders were active in the Minneapolis contracts selling the front month contracts and buying the deferred, possibly indicating supply concerns later on.
- Sov Econ estimated Russian wheat production at 88 mmt, 1.2 mmt higher than their previous estimate.
- There may be some concerns with Russian spring wheat areas drying out with forecasts of higher temperatures on the way.
- Cheese buyers are starting to get more aggressive at near multi-year low price levels. A total of 13 loads of inventory changed hands on Monday.
- The block price has recovered back up to $1.60/lb, while barrels are now up to $1.5150/lb.
- Nearby Class III futures reacted positively to the cheese market on Monday. The second month June contract added 26c to $16.32, while July added 13c to $16.76.
- Spot whey was offered a penny lower and closed at $0.2550/lb. This is a new low for whey.
- This should be a quiet week for the dairy markets from a news standpoint. The only monthly report due out is the Cold Storage report on Wednesday.
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