CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The weak technical picture in corn triggered additional long liquidation as the market continues to lack fresh bullish headlines. Corn futures have now closed lower in eight of the past ten trading sessions. July corn futures lost 3 ½ cents to 440 ½, while December futures fell 6 cents to 466 ½.
• USDA released the first crop rations for this year’s corn crop on Monday afternoon in the USDA Crop Progress report.  The corn crop was rated 67% good/excellent. This was below market expectations, and down 1% from last year’s ratings. Corn plating is in its final stages at 93% complete in Monday’s report.
• Current US weather models have turned warmer and wetter in extended forecasts as rainfall is predicted to be more widespread across the corn belt going into the end of the week. If realized, the forecast is very crop friendly.
• The remaining heavy supply of US old crop corn and the competitions from Argentina and Brazil corn harvest has pressured old crop prices. July corn is down 40 cents from the high on May 5.
• December corn futures closed under the 200-day moving average during the session. The area could act as a swing point in prices and continued closes under this level will strengthen the sellers in the market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, with the largest losses concentrated in nearby contracts as managed funds continued to liquidate positions across the agricultural sector. July soybeans fell to support at the 100-day moving average and closed there at $11.65-1/4. If prices continue to fall, the next level of support is likely the 200-day moving average which is at $11.65-1/4. Funds appear to be exiting a large portion of their long positions.
• July soybeans ended the day 15-1/2 cents lower to $11.65-1/4 while November lost 11 cents to $11.77-3/4. July soybean meal lost $0.30 to $326.20 and July soybean oil lost 0.68 cents to 78.41 cents. Soybean oil made a new contract high yesterday and has continued to move higher despite an overall move lower in crude oil over the past few weeks.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress Report which revealed the season’s first crop ratings. Soybeans were rated 66% good to excellent which was in line with analyst estimates and compared to 67% from a year ago. The crop is now 93% planted, which is up from 86% last week and 92% at this time a year ago.
• According to the USDA, US soybean crushings from the month of April were seen at 218.5 million bushels which was down from 231.8 mb in March but was up 7.9% from 202.39 mb the previous year. Stocks were up 23.6% year over year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat continued to bleed today, again led by the spring class. A combination of harvest pressure for the winter crop, rains in the US plains, and continued falling Paris milling wheat values have all weighed on the market. In the July contract, Chicago lost 5-3/4 cents to 603, Kansas City fell 12-1/4 cents to 634-3/4, and MIAX dropped 15 cents to 637.
• Yesterday afternoon’s USDA crop progress report indicated that the winter wheat crop was rated 26% good to excellent, steady with last week. Additionally, 87% of the crop is headed, above last year’s 82% and the five-year average of 79%. Finally as of May 31, 5% of the crop is said to be harvested, ahead of last year and the average, which both sit at 3%.
• The USDA also evaluated spring wheat – an estimated 94% of the crop is planted, steady with last year and above the five-year average of 89%. Furthermore, 72% of the crop has emerged versus 71% last year and 67% average. The crop was rated 47% good to excellent, down 3% from a year ago.
• SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russia’s 26/27 wheat exports by 1.1 mmt to 46.3 mmt. This is said to be the result of expectations for a larger crop and carryout. Meanwhile, they also cut the 25/26 wheat export forecast by 0.6 mmt to 46.8 mmt, citing a stronger Ruble and a slower shipment pace recently.
• Through June 1, the Egyptian government has received 4.3 mmt of domestic wheat since harvest began. This represents 86% of their total purchasing goal. According to their ag minister, this procurement program is meant to support farmers and also improve strategic reserves of grain.  
• According to the Australian government, their upcoming wheat harvest will fall to the smallest level in three years. Higher fertilizer costs driven by the Iran war, as well as dry weather in some regions, are expected to have reduced planting and yields; sown area is expected to fall 12% to 10.9 million hectares. ABARES (their agriculture bureau) is forecasting production at 26.7 mmt, which would be down about 9 mmt from last year and about 8 mmt from the five-year average.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures held some gains this morning, but fell off this morning for the summer contracts. The Q4 months managed to close green.
• Spot cheese was unchanged again at $1.4775/lb while whey fell 1.75 cents to settle at $0.6775/lb.
• The June through December Class IV futures all gave some back today. July was the biggest loser with a 26-cent fall.
• Butter gained another 4 cents today to move to $1.71/lb on 23 loads traded. Powder was up 2 cents to $2.15/lb, up 6 cents on two days this week so far.
• The Global Dairy Trade auction saw the index fall this morning, but cheese and butter remain at strong premiums to US prices.

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Author

Amanda Brill