TFM Daily Market Summary 06-03-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The corn market broke a five-day losing streak on Tuesday as prices found some footing for the session. Planting progress is nearing completion, but softer historical crop ratings may have supported the new crop market as light buying strength triggered some short covering. The key will be follow-through strength for the rest of the week.
  • As of June 1, corn planting reached 93% complete — on par with the 5-year average. Delays persist in Ohio and Kentucky due to continued wet conditions, with roughly 7.1 million acres still unplanted.
  • Corn crop conditions improved slightly over last week. USDA pegged the percent good/excellent at 69% as of June 1, up 1% over last week.  Corn condition ratings are down from 75% G/E from last year. Cool temperatures have been one of the biggest factors limiting the early stages of the corn crop.
  • April corn used for ethanol totaled 425.8 mb, down from March’s 452.9 mb. While ethanol demand remains firm, regulatory uncertainty and growing stocks could weigh on usage going forward.
  • Long range forecast going into the middle of June remains supportive of good crop development, as the corn market is looking for a bullish story to trigger a potential short covering rally. Currently the weather is a limiting factor to corn prices.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and took back nearly all of yesterday’s losses thanks to gains in soybean oil along with positive sentiment that trade deals with a number of countries are in the works and should lead to improved demand. Soybean meal was mixed with gains in the front months and losses in deferred months while soybean oil led the complex higher following crude oil.
  • USDA rated 67% of the crop good to excellent — slightly below expectations. Planting reached 84% vs. 77% last year, with 63% emerged.
  • U.S.–China tensions remain in focus as Presidents Trump and Xi are expected to speak this week. With South America dominating recent Chinese purchases, a fall trade window hinges on resolution.
  • April soybean crush hit a record 202.4 mb, up 14% from last year. Year-to-date crush is running 6% above 2023.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • After trading both sides of neutral, wheat closed lower across all three classes, pressured by better crop ratings, a firming of the U.S. Dollar, and a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures. In addition, the extended forecast has the potential for rains in some of the dry areas of China and the Black Sea.
  • USDA reported winter wheat at 52% good/excellent (+2%) with 83% headed and 3% harvested — both in line with average. Spring wheat is 95% planted and 50% G/E (+5%).
  • Widespread rains (1–3”) are forecast across the Midwest this week, with heavier totals in the southern U.S., which may delay harvest and impact quality.
  • Moroccan wheat imports between June 1, 2024, and the end of May 2025 totaled 6.05 mmt. This is up 9.4% from the previous 5.53 mmt in the previous 12 months. Soft wheat imports accounted for the majority of that total at 4.97 mmt, while durum made up the remainder at 1.08 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Today’s Global Dairy Trade auction event was down 1.60% from the previous auction to 1,311 points.
  • Class III futures were sharply lower just after the GDT auction this morning. The July contract traded limit down before closing 45 cents lower to $19.22.
  • Spot cheese lost 2.3750 cents to close at $1.88875/lb while whey fell just 0.25 cents to $0.5625/lb.
  • Class IV futures were relatively quiet compared to the Class III market with just June and August futures seeing single-digit losses while the remaining 2025 contracts were either unchanged or saw single-digit gains.
  • Both spot butter and powder lost a penny on the day closing at $2.50/lb and $1.2775/lb respectively.

 

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Author

Brandon Doherty

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