TFM Daily Market Summary 06-04-2024


  • Corn futures failed to hold on to early session gains to close slightly lower for the sixth straight session. Selling pressure in the wheat and soybean markets limited the rally potential in corn futures.
  • USDA posted planting progress at 91% complete for corn planting on Monday afternoon’s crop progress report. That was up 8% from last week and 2% ahead of the 5-year average. Continued wet weather may still make the last 9% difficult to plant, but the market has moved past the fear of major planting delays.
  • USDA released the first corn crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The U.S. corn crop was rated 75% good to excellent, 21% fair and 4% poor to very poor. The ratings were 11% better than last year, and the sixth highest rating in the last 20 years.
  • Brazil’s second crop corn harvest has begun. Ag analyst firm, AgRural, estimates that second crop corn harvest was 4.7% complete last week. Brazil’s second crop corn accounts for approximately 75% of Brazil’s national production and will challenge U.S. corn prices in the export market going into the summer.
  • The corn markets technical picture remains negative, leaving the door open for additional downside pressure. Open interest has been growing, signaling new money moving into the short side of the corn market.


  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the sixth consecutive day and are now 75 cents off of last week’s high in the July contract. Pressure has come from lower demand, planting progress that is ahead of the 5-year average, and pressure from both soybean meal and oil which has lowered crush margins.
  • Highlights from yesterday’s Crop Progress Report show soybeans plantings at 78% complete which compares to 68% a week ago, and 55% of the crop is emerged which compares to 39% a week ago. The first crop conditions will likely be released this coming Monday.
  • In South America, the soybean harvest is ongoing with Brazil essentially done and Argentina 86% finished as of last week. There is still a discrepancy between the USDA and CONAB for production estimates in Brazil of at least 5 mmt.
  • Soybean crush was seen at 178 mb for the month of April and although low, was above the average trade estimate of 175 mb. This was down 4.9% from April of last year. The decrease in soybeans crushed is likely tied to lower crush margins.


  • Wheat futures remained volatile as prices saw further selling pressure after Monday’s disappointing close. Despite strong price swings, the SRW and HRW July contract has closed lower for six consecutive days as wheat charts look tired, signaling a possible near-term top.
  • The US spring wheat crop moved to 94% planted on Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report. This was up 6% from last week and 4% ahead of the 5-year average. USDA crop rating for the spring wheat crop was 74% good to excellent, up 10% from a year ago and well above trade estimates, signaling the spring wheat crop is off to a good start this spring.
  • The HRW harvest began with 6% of the crop harvested last week, up 3% from the 5-year average. The recent strong prices leave the wheat market susceptible to hedge pressure as the HRW crop harvest ramps up in the weeks ahead.
  • The wheat market will be focused on demand for US wheat, global prices, and ongoing Russian weather as the driver for prices. The Russian wheat crop will have some limitations, but the key will be seeing if any additional demand will come to U.S. exporters given a forecaster tighter supply picture.


  • Class IV futures posted large double-digit gains today thanks to gains found in the spot trade. August and September futures nearly traded limit higher at 72 and 71 cents respectively.
  • Spot butter traded 4.25 cents higher to $3.1625/lb. This makes a gain of 7.25 cents already this week. Powder also traded higher by 2.25 cents to close at $1.19/lb.
  • Class III futures were modestly higher again today trading anywhere from 8 to 37 cents higher on 2024 contracts. July-December 2024 futures contracts closed into new contract highs yet again on Tuesday.
  • Spot cheese went unchanged at $1.9250 while whey was able to gain 2 cents to close at $0.44/lb which is its highest level since early March.
  • The Global Dairy Trade Auction Improved 1.70% today.


Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Amanda Brill

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