CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong selling in the soybean market and broader weakness across the grain complex added pressure to corn futures on Thursday. Corn market has traded lower for the fifth consecutive day as July corn lost 7 cents to 424 ½ and December corn lost 8 cents to 451 ¾.
• July corn posted a new contract low on Thursday trading below the previous low established on Aug 12 last summer at 428 ½. Corn charts remain very bearish as long liquidation pressures the market with bullish new lacking.
• USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 28, reported export sales totaled 883,000MT (34.8 mb) for 2025-26 and 244,00MT (9.6 mb) for 2026-27. The old crop total was below market expectations and down 13% from the previous week and 32% from the prior 4-week average. Japan was the largest corn buyer last week.
• Current U.S. weather models have turned warmer and wetter in extended forecasts as rainfall is predicted to be more widespread across the corn belt going into the weekend and early next week. If realized, the forecast is very crop friendly.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower for the fifth consecutive day as funds continue to sell off in the ag complex. July soybeans fell past their support at the 200-day average which is $11.37 while November ended right at its support at the 100-day average at $11.42. Soybean meal closed below all its major moving averages while soybean oil remains lofty despite the sell-off.
• July soybeans lost 24-1/2 cents to $11.29-1/2 while November lost 25-3/4 cents to $11.41-1/2. July soybean meal lost $7.10 to $313.70 and July soybean oil lost 2.42 cents to 76.29 cents. Funds are exiting their long positions as planting continues with good weather conditions overall.
• Export sales were poor for soybeans today with the USDA reporting an increase of 10.2 million bushels for 25/26 and an increase of 8.9 mb for 26/27. This was down 8% from the previous week and up 24% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were China, Mexico, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 20.9 mb were above the 15.8 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.
• The soybean harvest in Argentina is now nearly 92% complete, and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is still projecting total production at 50.1 mmt. With large crops from Argentina and Brazil, a large crop from the U.S. would likely push world ending stocks higher. So far, weather has been conducive to big U.S. production, especially if acres are shifted to soybeans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Bearish sentiment continued to push wheat, and the grain complex, lower today. Declining world values have also pressured the market – front month (September) MATIF wheat futures have fallen for the seventh consecutive session. In the July contract, Chicago lost 5-1/2 cents to 581-3/4, Kansas City fell 3-3/4 cents to 620-1/4, and MIAX dropped 5-1/4 cents to 621.
• The USDA reported a decrease of 23.6 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and an increase of 30.8 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 14.6 mb, which is well below the 47.9 mb pace needed per week to reach their 910 mb export goal. Wheat 25/26 export commitments stand at 868 mb, up 11% from last year.
• According to FNCL, a grain traders’ group, Morocco’s wheat imports for the past 12 months (through the end of May) totaled 6.36 mmt. This compares with 6.02 mmt for the same time period last year. Of the total, soft wheat accounted for 5.13 mmt. France provided 69% of the soft wheat, with Argentina overtaking Russia as the second largest supplier, at 10.5%.
• LSEG commodities research has slightly lowered their estimate of U.S. 26/27 wheat production. Compared to their last update, the crop is now expected to decline 2% to 43.7 mmt. A combination of weather data, crop ratings, and satellite imagery were used to assess the crop. For reference, the USDA’s production figure is slightly lower at 42.5 mmt.
• The Russian agriculture ministry has indicated that Russian spring wheat as of May 26 has been planted on 7.1 million hectares. This is 12% below last year at the same time – planting delays have been caused by persistent rains. If the precipitation continues, it could lead to lower planted areas and potentially lower yields.
• On a bullish note, China may have to import more wheat later this year. Recent heavy rains have taken a toll on their domestic wheat crop in certain regions, lowering quality. This includes Henan, their largest wheat producing province. Some analysts suggest that between 4.8-10 mmt could be downgraded to feed quality. Currently, 42% of China’s wheat planted area has been harvested.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Many Class IV futures faced double-digit losses today with the second month July falling 17 cents to $20.47.
• Spot butter was 3 cents lower to move to $1.68/lb while powder fell 3.50 cents with a $2.11/lb settlement.
• Class III contracts closed with mostly small gains. July futures were up a penny to $16.67.
• Spot cheese was up less than a penny to move to $1.46/lb, whereas whey was down a half cent to $0.67/lb.
• April cheese production was up 1.70% YoY at 1.27 billion lbs. Butter came in up 4.50% at 224 million lbs.

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Author

John Heinberg