- Corn futures reversed off overnight highs as weather models are still forecasting rainfall chances to increase around June 12, with a potential pattern shift coming in the back half of the month. The weak price action could lead to additional selling pressure on the Monday night open.
- Demand keeps the market cautious as weekly corn export inspections were at 46.5 mb for the week ending June 1. This number was within expectations, but overall export inspections are running 32% behind last year versus a predicted drop in exports of 28% for the marketing year by the USDA. Total inspections are still behind the pace needed to reach USDA targets.
- The USDA will release weekly crop ratings on Monday afternoon, and the market is expecting a 2% drop to 67% good/excellent, reflecting the current dry weather across the Corn Belt. Corn planting should be nearly complete, analyst estimate US corn at 97% planted as of Sunday.
- The corn market will likely stay volatile and choppy this week, focusing on daily weather forecasts and preparing for the June WASDE report to be released on Friday, June 9. The June WASDE is expected to show a weaker demand tone and overall increasing corn supplies.
- Soybeans ended the day lower after trading either side of unchanged, while soybean meal ended higher but soybean oil was lower despite higher crude oil prices. Weather forecasts changed around midday causing prices to turn negative.
- Weather has been the focus for the price movement in corn and soybeans, and up until around noon, forecasts were calling for dryness until mid-June. Forecasts have changed slightly now calling for more rain within the next 7 days in the heart of the Corn Belt where it is sorely needed.
- Soybean inspections totaled just 7.9 mb for the week ending Thursday, June 1, bringing total inspections to 1.788 bb and down 3% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 2.015 bb for 22/23 which is down 7% from the previous year, but those numbers could change on Friday’s WASDE report.
- Weekly wheat inspections of 8.6 mb bring the total 22/23 inspections to 728 mb. The USDA is estimating exports at 775 mb, and with only a few weeks left in the marketing year, they may need to revise that estimate on Friday’s USDA report.
- As of May 30th, funds have increased their net short position of Chicago wheat to 127,034 contracts (equivalent to about 635 mb).
- News outlets are reporting that Russia stated they will not extend the Black Sea grain corridor again in July. However, time will tell. They have made similar statements in the past before the deal was renewed. Russia does appear to still be delaying vessel inspections though.
- Class III and IV futures were lower on Monday as spot butter fell 4.25c to $2.4025/lb. This is its lowest close since May 12th.
- There are a lot of news events expected this week. This afternoon will see the release of the Dairy Products report, there is a GDT auction on Tuesday, and a Supply and Demand report will be released on Friday.
- The cheese trade was better on Monday. Barrels caught a bid up to $1.55/lb, which was 3.75c higher than Friday’s close. Blocks were steady.
- June 2023 Class III milk fell 10c to $15.19. This is a new contract-low settlement.
- The feed market was mixed. Soybean meal found support and is back over $400/ton, while corn sold off on weather forecast changes.
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