TFM Daily Market Summary 06-06-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The corn market finished the week with some buying strength, led by short covering and value buying in the July futures. December corn closed the week 10 ¾ cents higher and traded higher for 4 consecutive sessions. July corn was still 1 ½ cents lower on the week and posted its lowest weekly close since October.
  • Early season weather has been favorable for a good start to this year’s corn crop, but some longer-range models are showing a possibility of drier forecast for the west-central corn belt for the end of June into July. A possible weather concern has triggered some short covering of new crop corn this week.
  • USDA will release the June WASDE report on June 12. While changes will likely be minimal for new crop projections, analysts are anticipating a demand increase for old crop bushel, lowering the 2024-25 carryout projects. Solid ethanol and export demand this spring supports possible adjustments.
  • Brazil corn prices have been under heavy pressure as harvest picks up speed and the prospects of a large harvest build due to good growing conditions. Weakness in Brazil corn prices have pressured old crop US corn prices.
  • Despite fresh corn supplies from Argentina and Brazil in the export market, US corn prices are still competitive. Rumors were in the market that South Korea was a purchaser of corn this week out of the Pacific Northwest ports.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the week and posted their fourth consecutive higher close as the longer-term forecasts turn hotter and drier. Positive trade talks between President Trump and China’s Xi this week were supportive to the soy complex as well. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that soybean harvest in Argentina is now 88.7% complete, up 8% from the week prior.
  • Drought conditions are still persistent across the soybean belt but were seen shrinking by 1% to 16%. This compares to just 2% during the same period last year.
  • For the week, July soybeans gained 15-1/2 cents to 10.57-1/4 while November gained just 10-1/4 cents. July soybean meal was virtually unchanged losing just $0.60 at $295.70, and July soybean oil gained 0.61 cents closing at 47.50 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat futures found good buying strength across all three classes of wheat during Friday’s session. The July Chicago wheat contract posted its highest daily close since April 23 and finished the week 20 ¾ cents higher.
  • An increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine triggered some short covering in the wheat market as traders have added some war premium back into the market.
  • Chinese wheat producing regions are experiencing some drought conditions as harvest approaches. The prospects of a below-average harvest have the wheat market watching for some possible increased export activity as China may need to maintain wheat supplies.
  • USDA announced that wheat export shipments for the 2024-25 marketing year reached 768.3 MB as of May 29. The total was well below the USDA target of 820 mb for the marketing, which closed on May 30. New crop wheat export sales are firm to start the new marketing year as early totals are the best in the past twelve years for this time frame.
  • Recent rainfall forecast in Hard red winter wheat growing areas has trended wetter than normal with precipitation. As harvest ramps up, wet conditions could impact the quality of the wheat harvest.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III futures were finally able to break a three-day losing streak, finding support from short covering. August futures saw the highest gain of 32 cents to close at $19.33
  • Spot cheese fell 3.1250 cents to close at $1.85875/lb while whey tacked on 1.25 cents to go home at $0.58/lb.
  • Class IV futures were quiet on the day with only August through October contracts seeing small losses. All other 2025 contracts were unchanged on the day.
  • Spot butter lost just 0.25 cents on the day but is still up 8 cents on the week, closing at $2.5550/lb. Powder was unchanged at $1.2625/lb.  

 

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Author

John Heinberg

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