CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Sellers returned to the grain markets to end the week, giving back a portion of Thursday’s gains. The corn market was pressured by double-digit losses in the wheat and soybean markets during the day. For the week, July corn futures managed a 2 ½ cent gain and December futures only gained ¼ of a cent.
• The jump in prices on Thursday was based on short covering triggered by news of Brazil’s new tax plan and its impact on agriculture producers and industry. However, this issue moved to the back burner on Friday as the market refocused on fundamentals and current overall conditions, which are favorable for supply growth.
• On Thursday’s move higher, producers in the US, Argentina, and Brazil were more active in making cash sales for corn. The large supply of corn held by producers will likely limit the upside potential in the corn market.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its latest crop ratings. Currently, the Argentina corn crop is rated 51% Good/Excellent and Fair. Corn harvest is building, trending at 35% complete on a crop estimated to reach 46.5 mmt.
• Demand for corn stayed friendly for old crop corn. For the week, ethanol production ran strong, and weekly export sales reached 46.5 mb. The near-term demand may help limit downside pressure on old crop supplies.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower and took back a large portion of yesterday’s gains as selling pressure continued. Soybeans closed lower for 4 out of the 5 trading sessions this week as planting progress remains ahead of the average and the possibility that more soybean acres get planted increases. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
• For the week, July soybeans lost 25 ¾ cents at 1179 ¼, and November soybeans lost 26 ¾ cents. The July contract has faced resistance at its 100-day moving average at 1200. In soybean meal, the July contract lost $4.00 at $360.70 while soybean oil lost 1.89 cents in the July contract at 43.63 cents. Funds were heavy sellers across the soy complex this week.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 104,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. This is only the second soybean flash sale reported to China so far this year. Yesterday’s export sales were soft at 7.0 mb for 23/24 and 2.7 mb for 24/25. Lack of export demand has weighed on prices as most of the business goes to South America.
• Yesterday’s gains likely came from a tax scheme in Brazil that has been enacted, but has yet to be passed by Congress, and increases farm taxes. As a result, many Brazilian farmers are reportedly holding onto both corn and soybeans rather than making cash sales.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three wheat classes finished the week by closing lower on the day. Harvest pressure, a sharply higher US Dollar, sharply lower Matif wheat, and showers in Southern Russia were all contributing factors to today’s selling. Additionally, Reuters reported that Russia shipped 31,000 mt of wheat to Brazil for the first time from its Baltic terminal.
• Stone X lowered its estimate of Brazil’s 24/25 wheat crop to 7.79 mmt, 3.7% below last year’s production numbers. The analyst cited reduced planted area due to the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, with 900,000 hectares expected to be planted in the state, 200,000 less than last year.
• In a statement from the Turkish Agriculture Ministry, Turkey, one of the world’s largest wheat buyers, announced a ban on wheat imports from June 21 until mid-October. This measure aims to protect local farmers from falling prices caused by a bumper crop and the highest stocks in 20 years. Typically, Turkey imports around 2–2.5 million metric tons from the Black Sea region during this period.
• France, Europe’s top wheat producer, could possibly see the worst harvest since 2016 with damage to between 12% and 20% of total wheat areas due to the non-stop heavy rain that the region has seen since October, according to the president of the French grain growers’ group AGPB.
• ABARES, Australia’s government crop forecaster, expects wheat exports to be slightly higher than last year at 20.8 mmt, due to the dry weather that has hit Western Australia, the country’s largest exporting state. This news comes despite the fact that the agency expects total wheat production to rise 12%.
• The FAO-AMIS (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations-Ag Market Information System) in its first estimate for the 24/25 season, sees world wheat stocks totaling 306.8 mmt, with production down slightly from last year at 786.7 mmt. The organization also sees declines in the EU, UK, Ukraine, and Turkey as possibly offset by gains in the US, Canada, Australia, and India.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were able to trade in the green and erase most of the losses from yesterday’s session. July futures closed out the week dropping below $20.00/cwt, while August through September futures were able to close above that level.
• Spot cheese was unchanged on the day at $1.90/lb, still up 2.50 cents overall on the week. Spot whey continues to be in an uptrend gaining an additional 1.75 cents Friday to close at $0.47/lb.
• Class IV futures struggled Friday on light volume seeing losses between 3 and 13 cents. The 2024 Class IV average was down 3 cents to $20.99/cwt.
• Spot butter, after a rollercoaster week, was able to head into the weekend 4.25 cents higher at $3.0925/lb. Powder was unchanged at $1.1950/lb but still posted a weekly gain of 2.75 cents.

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Author

John Heinberg