TFM Daily Market Summary 06-08-2023


  • Corn prices finished higher on the session, fighting off overnight lows in some position squaring before Friday’s USDA report. The corn market was also supported by fluctuating weather models for weekend rains, and strength in the wheat market on increasing Ukrainian-Russian war tensions.
  • The USDA released weekly exports sales this morning for corn, and old crop sales were 173,000 MT and new crop sales saw cancelations of 107,000 MT. Overall sales were at the low end of expectations as export demand remains weak.
  • The wheat market was supported by the talk of a Ukrainian counter offensive, escalating activity in the Russia-Ukraine war. The strong wheat market spilled over to support corn prices at the end of the session.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher, driven by large gains in soybean oil, which saw the July contract 4% higher, while soybean meal moved lower.
  • Export sales were decent, all things considered, the USDA reported an increase of 7.6 mb for the 22/23 year, which was up 68% from the previous week, 9.7 mb were reported for 23/24. Export shipments of 9.1 mb were below the 12.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.
  • US biodiesel exports for April were up 110% from last year at over 147,000 mt, which is the highest on record. The first four months of the year were 52% higher than that of a year ago.
  • Tomorrow’s WASDE report will be released at 11:00 CST, and traders will be watching for a change in the carryout number. Trade expectations are for 223 mb of old crop beans and 345 mb of new crop, which would be slightly up from last month. Argentinian production will most likely be revised lower.


  • Weekly export sales for wheat were reported at 8.6 mb. Shipments last week of just 7.0 mb are well below the needed 34.5 mb per week to reach the 775 mb export estimate.
  • Russian wheat export values continue to fall, with reports of August offers as low as $226 per metric ton. With Russia cutting into US exports, it is possible that in tomorrow’s USDA report there may be an increase to US carryout.
  • Most Ukrainian wheat areas and spring wheat areas of Russia remain dry. Australia is wet, however. This is contrary to the typical El Nino pattern, which should bring dryness to Australia’s wheat growing areas.
  • The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 all wheat production is 1.666 bb (vs 1.659 in May, and 1.650 for 22/23)


  • Sellers returned to the Class III market after a short recess as the July contract dropped 46 cents to move back near the bottom end of $16.00.
  • Cheddar blocks fell a nickel, while barrels were 8.25 cents lower to bring the average to $1.51125/lb, but that price is still up 5 cents on the week entering Friday.
  • Class IV action was unchanged to lower, as well with July futures dropping 24 cents to $18.00 on the nose.
  • Spot butter was up a penny today, but on pace for its worst week in more than two months. Powder is going on five weeks within a two cent range.

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Amanda Brill

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