CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures failed to hold onto early session gains on Tuesday as weakness in crude oil market and a fading wheat market limited gains. July corn finished 6 cents off the session high of 425 ½ to close only ¾ cent higher at 419 ½. December corn failed on a test of the 450-price point to close ¾ cent lower at 445 ¼.
• USDA released the latest crop ratings on Monday afternoon in this week’s Crop Condition report. As of June 7, the corn crop was rated 67% G/E. This was steady, but below market expectations and the 5-year average of 69%. Within the ratings, the crop shifted 2% away from good into the excellent categories. Corn planting was basically complete at 97% complete.
• Weather forecasts remain friendly for crop development overall with a wetter and warmer than normal forecast into the weekend for the majority of the Corn Belt.
• USDA reported a flash sale of corn on Tuesday morning. USDA reported that Unknown Destination purchased 120,000 MT (4.7 mb) of corn sold for the 2025-26 marketing year.
• Ongoing corn harvest activity in both Argentina and Brazil continues to push fresh supplies into the export market, adding pressure to global corn prices. Despite the increased competition, U.S. corn remains competitive through Pacific Northwest export channels, supported by ample supplies in the western Corn Belt.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower again as funds continue to sell and prices struggle to find a bottom. July soybeans lost 2 cents to $11.13-3/4 while November lost 3-1/2 cents to $11.32. July soybean meal lost $1.60 to $301.10 and July soybean oil gained 0.35 cents to 74.91 cents despite a drop in crude oil.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress saw soybean conditions fall 1 point from last week as expected to 65% good to excellent. This compared to 68% at this time a year ago. 92% of soybeans are planted and 79% are emerged.
• Estimates for this Friday’s WASDE report see the average soybean yield at 52.9 bpa which would compare to 53.0 bpa in May. 25/26 ending stocks are seen relatively unchanged, and 26/27 ending stocks are seen at 310 mb. World ending stocks are not expected to be changed significantly, and there are no major expected changes for this report.
• Chinese imports of soybeans exceeded expectations for the month of May but were still down 15.3% from the year prior. Increased imports were primarily from Brazil and were a result of large Brazilian supply which has kept South American soy prices low and more competitive than U.S. offers. Total Chinese imports of soybeans totaled 11.79 mmt for March.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed in a mixed manner today, and well below daily highs. A drop in the U.S. Dollar Index was supportive, as was the fact that U.S. wheat remains technically oversold. However, a lower close for soybeans and mostly lower close for corn may have spilled over some weakness into the wheat complex. In the July contract, Chicago gained 2 cents to 585-1/4, Kansas City was up 1 cent at 630-3/4, and MIAX lost 2 cents to 617-1/2.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that U.S. winter wheat conditions slipped 1% from last week to only 25% good to excellent. This compares with 54% at this time last year. Additionally, 92% of the crop is headed, versus 87% a year ago and 85% average. Finally, 11% of the crop is harvested, up from 4% last year and 6% on average.
• The USDA also said that the spring wheat crop is 98% planted, in line with a year ago and ahead of the five-year average of 95%. An estimated 87% of the crop has emerged, versus 81% last year and 80% on average. Finally, conditions improved 5% from last week to 52% good to excellent; this compares with 53% last year.
• According to CONAB, wheat planting in Brazil is 41.4% complete as of June 1. Sowing has been supported by largely favorable weather and good soil moisture conditions. Furthermore, multiple regions are said to have already completed planting, including the states of Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul.
• There is talk that too much rain in the southern region of the U.S. Midwest could cause some quality and disease concerns for the SRW wheat crop. Additionally, the eastern Midwest and Tennessee Valley could see flooding, which could also impact the crop.
• Analyst APK Inform has raised their estimate of Ukrainian wheat production by 1.8 mmt to 21.7 mmt. For reference, this is below the USDA’s figure, which sits at 23 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• US spot powder fell 10.25c to $1.8975/lb. This over 5% drop takes powder to its lowest level since March 17th.
• After strong bidding yesterday, the cheese trade fell flat as blocks and barrels saw no price movement and no loads traded.
• Spot butter gave up 2.50c and closed back down to $1.6750/lb on 19 loads traded.
• Class IV milk futures saw heavy selling as it appears the powder market has topped. The weak butter market will drag IV down.
• Most Class III futures fell double digits lower, pressured by the weaker Class IV complex.

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg