The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, June 19, 2023, in observance of Juneteenth
- The corn market saw additional buying strength to end the week, and the market pushed through technical resistance. This triggered additional short covering and money flow as weather forecasts keep buyers active in the market.
- December corn futures closed over the 200-day moving average for the first time since Nov 18 and crossed over top of a long-term, down trendline during the session. The strong price action will keep buyers active going into next week if the weather forecast remains a concern.
- Despite demand concerns and ongoing Brazil corn harvest, the corn market is clearly being led by the weather. Current forecasts keep threatening weather of dry conditions and limited rainfall into next week.
- Market upside could be limited by the potential competition from Brazil corn harvest. Lower priced, fresh supplies are starting to hit the global market.
- The cash market is staying supportive of futures prices as the national corn index is trending above multi-year averages, and dry weather concerns have triggered some end user buying to cover potential corn needs. The index gained 14 cents this week.
- Soybeans skyrocketed higher again today to mark $1.02 in gains in just two days for the November contract. For the week, Nov beans gained $1.38 as dry weather triggered funds to get more aggressive with purchases.
- Both soy products rallied today as well with soybean meal taking the lead today with gains of over 5% in all contracts, but soybean oil was the leader yesterday following higher palm oil and crude.
- Drought data revealed that 51% of the soybean crop is experiencing drought. Dryness in the eastern Corn Belt is expected throughout at least the next three days with better chances for showers in the western Belt.
- Yesterday, bullish news came from the NOPA May crush report which saw 177.915 mb of beans crushed, a record for the month of May and 4% higher than the previous year. While export demand has been poor, domestic demand has been enough for markets to feel the squeeze of tight on hand supplies.
- All three US wheat futures classes again posted double-digit gains, as the weather forecast for most of the Midwest looks dry for the next couple weeks, likely triggering short covering by the Funds as well.
- Alongside US futures, Paris milling wheat futures gapped higher, ending their session with gains of 3.75 to 4.75 Euros per metric ton, well off the session high. US futures also closed off daily highs, likely due to profit taking after the strong rally.
- Despite recent reports that the Russian government set a $240 (per ton) price floor on exports, this week their export prices are said to have hit a low of $230. This is sure to keep pressure on the US export market.
- Supportive to wheat is the fact that El Nino could bring drought to Australia’s wheat-growing region. Additionally, the French wheat crop conditions are worsening with a rating of 85% good to excellent, which is down 10% over the past three weeks.
- Argentina’s wheat crop was recently downgraded by the Rosario Grain Exchange by 3 mmt and is currently below the USDA’s estimate.
- The remaining quarters for 2023 took heavy losses on the week, Q3 and Q4 fell 62 and 10 cents in Class III, respectively, while Class IV Q3 and Q4 fell 30 and 33 cents, respectively.
- Despite domestic and foreign demand for cheese being in a good place, the spot cheese market fell 4 cents per pound this week.
- The second month Class III contract fell to its lowest weekly close since January of 2021.
- US dairy cow culling for the week ending June 3rd, up 6.1% from the same week last year.
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